While midterms are still more than a year off, primary season will be on the horizon when lawmakers return from their summer recess.
After their summer recess, lawmakers will return to Washington in September with a closer eye on the 2026 midterm elections.
Several senators face tough primary battles. Others are on the way out, leaving their seats open—and increasing uncertainty in battleground state elections. Others face an electorate that tends to vote against their party.
Here are five major races to watch in 2026.
| 1. Georgia |
| 2. Maine |
| 3. North Carolina |
| 4. Michigan |
| 5. Texas |
1. Georgia
In the Peach State, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) faces an electorate that backed President Donald Trump by 2.2 percentage points in 2024.
Trump was propelled in part by extremely high turnout in Georgia’s rural counties.
While the state has strong Republican roots, Democrats have increasingly made gains in Georgia, partly driven in recent years by the explosive growth of the Atlanta metropolitan area—where voters tend to favor Democrats.
Ossoff was first elected in 2020, one of two surprise Senate wins for Democrats in Georgia—alongside Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), who was running in a special election.
In 2022, Warnock won reelection over Republican Herschel Walker in a runoff in which Warnock took 51.4 percent of the vote to Walker’s 48.6 percent.
The political shifts in the Peach State in recent years make it difficult to predict an outcome in the 2026 race, which the Cook Political Report rates as a toss-up.
It’s unclear which candidate Republicans will back for the seat.
Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) has declared his intention to run, while other potential contenders are Reps. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) and Rick Allen (R-Ga.), and Republican state Sen. Colton Moore.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, also a Republican, has said he doesn’t intend to run for the post.
2. Maine
Sen. Susan Collins, the only New England Republican left in the U.S. Senate, faces the opposite situation.
First elected to the Senate in 1996, Collins has won reelection four times even as her home state, and the northeast as a whole, veered heavily toward the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris won the state by seven points in 2024.
Collins has held onto the position in part due to her regular defections from the GOP party-line—particularly on social issues.
Most recently, she was a strong critic of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and a $9.4 billion spending cuts package proposed by Trump.
One of the most electorally successful Democrats in Maine, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), has declined to seek the Democratic nomination to challenge Collins in 2026.
David Costello, a former consultant who was the Democratic nominee against Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) in 2024, has announced his intention to run.
A handful of state government Democrats, including Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives Ryan Fecteau and former state Sen. Cathy Breen, have expressed interest in the nomination.
Currently, the Cook Political Report rates the race as likely Republican.
By Joseph Lord
