Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) decision to retire has made the Senate landscape in 2024 even more complicated for Democrats.
The party was already facing an uphill slog to hold on to its Senate majority, as it prepared to protect seats in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio — three states where the GOP nominee for president will be heavily favored.
Manchin’s name on the ballot suggested a competitive race. Without him, the Senate seat seems wrapped for the GOP as a gift.
Losing the state would leave no room for another loss for Democrats if they hope to keep their majority, which now stands at 51-49 with Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) voting with Democrats.
Still, the party is hopeful it can carry the day even as a recent run of polls show former President Trump, the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination, leading President Biden.
Trump’s rise has given a major boost to Republicans, who believe they can win not only in red territory, but purple states as well if that stays true a year from now.
Here are the five Senate seats, West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Arizona and Pennsylvania, which are most likely to flip.
West Virginia
If gambling sites took political bets, they would have taken this race completely off the board this month after Manchin announced his retirement from the Senate.
The decision by Manchin — who was considered by most, if not all, to be the only Democrat with a prayer to keep the seat blue — virtually guaranteed West Virginia will go red next year and put Republicans one step closer to retaking the majority.
Manchin’s decision not to seek a third full term in office came as he was staring down a daunting match-up with West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) and had seen his favorability ratings dip.
Justice is the heavy favorite to win the GOP primary over Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), who is backed by the Club for Growth. Former President Trump last month threw his weight behind Justice, who is seemingly on a glidepath to replace the outgoing senator.
Manchin’s decision also does wonders for the GOP financially speaking.
“There’s a real world where not only does Justice not have to spend any of his personal fortune, but that the GOP doesn’t have to spend any of ours either,” one GOP operative told The Hill. “That’s obviously huge, and it means more resources for the Pennsylvanias and Wisconsins of the world.”
By Al Weaver
