Trump warned last weekend that Zelensky will have “some problems – big, big problems” if he “tries to back out of the rare earth deal” amidst reports that the latest version of this agreement is very lopsided. It allegedly compels Ukraine to contribute half of its revenue from all resource projects and related infrastructure into a US-controlled investment fund, pay off all US aid from 2022 onward through these means, and give the US the right of first offer on new projects and a veto over resource sales to others.
These tougher terms can be considered punishment for Zelensky picking his infamous fight with Trump and Vance at the White House in late February, but the whole package is being sold to Ukraine as a “security guarantee” from the US. The argument goes that America won’t let Russia threaten these projects, which also include pipelines and ports, thus leading to it at the very least resuming 2023-levels of military-intelligence aid and maybe even directly escalating with Russia to get it into back down.
Ukraine kinda already has such Article 5-like guarantees from the US and other major NATO countries per the bilateral pacts that it clinched with them all throughout last year as explained here, but this proposed arrangement gives the US tangible stakes in deterring or immediately stopping hostilities. The trade-off though is that Ukraine must sacrifice part of its economic sovereignty, which is politically uncomfortable since Zelensky told his compatriots that they’re fighting to preserve its full sovereignty.
If Zelensky agrees to Trump’s lopsided resource deal, then the optics of any ceasefire, armistice, or peace treaty would pair with de facto global recognition of Russian control over the fifth of Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory that Kiev still claims as its own to craft the perception of a joint asymmetrical partition. Not only might Zelensky’s political career end if Ukraine was then forced to hold truly free and fair elections, but his envisaged legacy in Ukrainians’ eyes as this century’s top “freedom fighter” would also be shattered.
He doesn’t have any feasible alternative though since going behind Trump’s back to reach a comparatively better deal with the Brits and/or Europeans wouldn’t result in the “security guarantees” that he’s convinced himself that Ukraine needs in order to compromise with Russia. No one other than the US has any chance of militarily taking on Russia, let alone the political will, and not to mention solely over their investments in a war-torn third country whose resource wealth is reportedly questionable.
If Zelensky keeps dillydallying, then Trump might once again temporarily suspend military and intelligence aid to Ukraine as leverage while tacking on even more punitive terms as revenge. The conflict with Russia would also naturally continue, thus making it impossible for Ukraine to develop its resource industry and related infrastructure even if it reached a deal with someone else. The longer that the conflict lasts, the greater the likelihood that Russia will destroy more of those same assets too.
But if Zelensky accepts the latest deal on offer, then he’d obtain the “security guarantees” that he’s looking for, thus making him more likely to accept a ceasefire and then possibly leading to Trump putting further pressure on Putin to follow suit such as imposing strict secondary sanctions on Russian oil clients. Zelensky would sacrifice his political career, his envisaged legacy in Ukrainians’ eyes, and part of his country’s economic sovereignty, but he’d avert a much worse scenario than if he rejected this deal.
