‘I think Powell will stick to the rhetoric he’s been using,’ said one market analyst.
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will be under the spotlight when he delivers his final keynote address at this week’s annual central bank retreat beginning on Aug. 21.
More than 100 people, including central bankers, academics, and financial industry leaders, will converge on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s 43rd Economic Policy Symposium from Aug. 21 to Aug. 23.
This year’s event is titled, “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”
It will be Powell’s final Jackson Hole appearance before his term expires in May 2026. He is delivering the keynote address on Aug. 22, and has historically used the main event to convey pivotal moments for monetary policy.
In 2022, for example, Powell drew inspiration from one of his predecessors, Paul Volcker, to underscore the central bank’s resolve to combat inflation.
A year later, the Fed chief outlined the institution’s cautious approach to monetary policy: While inflation is cooling, the job is not finished.
Weeks before the 2024 presidential election, Powell struck an optimistic tone that rallied Wall Street. However, he did not lay out the super-sized half-point interest rate cut that transpired a month later.
“The time has come for policy to adjust,” he said during a speech on Aug. 23, 2024. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”
Economic conditions in August 2025 differ slightly from those of a year ago.
On the one hand, recent data suggest that the U.S. labor market may be starting to deteriorate. In addition to a weaker-than-expected 73,000 new jobs in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recorded downward revisions of 258,000 for May and June—the largest two-month negative adjustment since 1979.
On the other hand, new government statistics indicate that tariffs may be affecting the U.S. marketplace. While the headline annual inflation rate in the July Consumer Price Index came in below economists’ expectations, the Producer Price Index and import prices surged in July.
With these latest developments, Powell’s monthslong wait-and-see approach could prove to be warranted or a policy misstep heading into his highly anticipated speech.
By Andrew Moran
