Polling in each state suggests that Democratic Party candidates, and a ballot initiative supported by the Democrats, will likely win.
On Nov. 4, elections will be held in New York, New Jersey, Virginia, and California for a variety of public offices and referenda. Political observers have closely watched the races, which may be indicative of the country’s mood nearly 11 months into President Donald Trump’s second term.
Polling across these races is usually watched as a predictor of the outcomes. Below, we list the standing of candidates and referenda in the final set of opinion polls taken before Election Day.
New York
In New York City, voters will be voting on a variety of local offices, though one among them—the mayoral election—has attracted outsized international attention. Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, since his upset victory in the Democratic Primary on June 24, has been leading the polls.
The latest major network poll by Fox News shows Mamdani with a 16 percentage point lead over his nearest rival, the state’s former governor, Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent candidate. In that poll, Mamdani garners 47 percent of the vote compared to Cuomo’s 31 percent, while Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa has 15 percent.
The RealClearPolitics polling average favors Mamdani by 14.3 percentage points. Unlike its primary contest, New York City uses the first past-the-post system for general elections, meaning that, should Mamdani perform as polls suggest, he would win the election.
New Jersey
In New Jersey, voters will cast ballots in the gubernatorial election. The Democratic nominee is U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, while the Republican nominee is former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli. Ciattarelli was also the party’s nominee in the 2021 election and lost to incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, in a close contest.
Sherrill is ahead of Ciattarelli in the polls, but in recent weeks, the polling gap has significantly narrowed to the point where her lead is either close to or within the margin of error. The average of all major polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics shows Sherrill with a polling lead of 3.3 percentage points.
Virginia
Virginia voters will be electing a new governor and lieutenant governor, as well as voting for the Attorney General of Virginia and for all seats in the House of Delegates. In the gubernatorial races, polls suggest a Democratic Party sweep.
Former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger is the Democratic nominee and is currently ahead by 9.6 percentage points, on average. Her opponent is Republican nominee and incumbent Lt. Gov. Winsome Earl-Sears, who has not substantially gained on Spanberger during the whole electoral cycle. Similarly, in the lieutenant governor’s race, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, the Democratic nominee, leads Republican nominee John Reid by a wide margin.
The contest for attorney general is competitive due to scandals involving Democratic nominee Jay Jones. Still, he is ahead of incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares by 2 percentage points, according to a poll by Emerson College, though that is within the margin of error.
California
In California, voters will not be voting for elections to public offices but will instead be deciding on whether to approve or reject Ballot Proposition 50. The referendum is backed by Democrats and seeks to temporarily bypass California’s independent redistricting committee and revise the state’s congressional district boundaries for elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, so as to win the party more seats in the next general elections to the House in 2026.
Due to the state’s heavy Democratic lean, the proposition appears likely to pass, with the “Yes” side garnering 56 percent in favor, according to a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California. It has a 13 percentage point lead over the “No” side of the vote.
By Arjun Singh
