The old order has been breaking since Russia invaded Ukraine, experts say, and the Arctic felt the change first. The new order will form in about half a decade.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s pursuit of Greenland for national security purposes rankled allies ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January.
Trump’s threat of tariffs, coupled with his talk of possible military intervention to acquire the island, prompted sharp pushback from European countries. These tensions triggered talk of a “new world order” at Davos, with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stating that the post-World War II world order is “in the midst of a rupture.”
But tensions eased soon after when the United States and NATO reached a framework deal on Greenland and Trump withdrew planned tariffs and ruled out the use of military action. High-level negotiations have continued between Washington and NATO and have begun between the United States, Denmark, and the semi-autonomous island.
Still, the Trump administration’s actions on Greenland represent a milestone event in a shifting world order, experts told The Epoch Times. As China and Russia look to deepen their strategic foothold in the Arctic and beyond, the United States is reasserting itself in the region.
Experts said they expect several years of turbulence before a new equilibrium emerges. When the dust settles in three to five years, they said, the United States is likely to retain its status as the dominant power, with China unlikely to secure material gains.
Despite China’s continued attempts to gain influence in Greenland and to deepen its operations with Russia in the Arctic Circle, experts said they suspect that reputational constraints and internal challenges will ultimately hamper the regime’s ability to achieve global primacy. At the same time, the United States will continue its world leadership role in a realigned position, they said.
A rare convergence of geopolitical factors has elevated Greenland’s strategic importance. Located in a region critical to U.S. homeland defense, the island is also situated between two emerging Arctic shipping routes that could significantly shorten global transit times. In addition, the territory is rich with natural resources, including rare earths.
By Terri Wu
