All eyes will be on Michigan’s Democratic primary for a U.S. Senate seat that could determine which party controls the upper congressional chamber.
Michigan, Kansas, Missouri, Virginia, and Washington state are holding primaries on Aug. 4 in contentious races that could determine the balance of power in Congress and elsewhere.
Of those states, Michigan will be the most watched due to a Democratic Senate primary that could determine which party controls the upper congressional chamber.
Heading into the primaries, progressives have seen momentum nationwide from New York to Colorado, winning Democratic primaries that include candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America. Multiple races on Tuesday are pitting establishment Democrats against more liberal challengers with differences on immigration enforcement and support for Israel.
Here are the most important races to watch and what’s at stake.
Michigan
The Wolverine State features Tuesday’s most-watched race: the Democratic Senate primary between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) and epidemiologist Abdul El-Sayed, who ran for governor in 2018.
Stevens and El-Sayed have disagreed over whether Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) should be reined in, as Stevens suggested, or abolished, as El-Sayed said. The race came as ICE has increased its presence in Michigan and as Democrats continued criticizing federal immigration operations and holding up funding for the Homeland Security Department.
Another major area of disagreement was support for Israel, which El-Sayed has accused of committing a “genocide” in Gaza in its military operations triggered by terrorist group Hamas’s deadly attack on Oct. 7, 2023. The Israeli government has denied such accusations.
Meanwhile, the United Democracy Project, the super PAC for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, spent more than $30 million backing Stevens.
The winner will take on former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), who is running unopposed in the GOP primary. The Cook Political Report rates the general election race as a toss-up.
The Senate seat is open because Sen. Gary Peters, a Democrat who has served since 2015, chose not to seek reelection.
Stevens, whose district is solidly Democratic, is expected to be replaced by another Democrat. Other hotly contested districts include the Seventh, Tenth, and 13th, which the Cook Political Report has rated with varying expectations.
The progressive versus establishment battle is also playing out in the Seventh District, where three Democrats look to take on incumbent Republican Rep. Tom Barrett. Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink and former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam are running with left-of-center platforms while William Lawrence, co-founder of the environmentalist group Sunrise Movement, is campaigning as a progressive.
The Cook Political Report rates the district as a toss-up.
At the state level, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is leaving office, and the race to succeed her leans Democrat, according to the Cook Political Report.
The Republican field consists of Rep. John James (R-Mich.), whom President Donald Trump endorsed, and businessman Perry Johnson, while the Democratic primary includes Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson.
Kansas
The most-watched race in the Sunflower State is the gubernatorial one. The winner will succeed Laura Kelly, a Democrat who is term-limited.
The Republican field includes state Senate President Ty Masterson, former state Rep. Charlotte O’Hara, cafe manager Nick Reinecker, business owner Stacy Rogers, businessman Philip Sarnecki, Kansas Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, and Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab. Trump has endorsed Masterson.
The Democratic primary consists of state Sen. Ethan Corson, state Sen. Cindy Holscher, and Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog.
The Cook Political Report rates the race as “Lean Republican.”
Virginia
In the Old Dominion, there are a couple of competitive House races.
In a likely rematch from 2022, former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) is expected to win the Democratic primary to take on incumbent GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans in the Second Congressional District, which the Cook Political Report rates as a toss-up.
In the Seventh Congressional District, Republicans seeking to take on incumbent Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman include entrepreneur Philip Harding, Army veteran Douglas Ollivant, and pastor Rick Smithers.
The Cook Political Report rates the race as “Likely Democratic.”
Missouri
The most-watched race in the Show-Me State is the Democratic primary in the First Congressional District, whose seat is occupied by Democratic Rep. Wesley Bell. Bell has four challengers in the primary, but his closest competitor is former Rep. Cori Bush, who represented the district between 2021 and 2025. She lost to Bell in the 2024 election.
This is another test of the pro-Israel camp versus those critical of the Mideast country. Bell is in the former camp, while Bush represents the latter.
The Republican field includes Paul Berry and Andrew Jones Jr.
The Cook Political Report rates the district as “Solid Democratic.”
Washington
There are two congressional races to watch in the Evergreen State.
In the Third Congressional District, three Democrats and three Republicans are challenging incumbent Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in the nonpartisan primary. The Democrats challenging her include Austin Braswell, businessman Brent Hennrich, and Democratic Socialist Troy Rasband. Trump has endorsed Republican state Sen. John Braun, who is competing against pilot Lawrence Kellogg and John Roco.
The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up.
Over in the Fourth Congressional District, which the Cook Political Report rates as “Solid Republican,” the race is on to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse.
The Republicans running include Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who was endorsed by Trump, businessman and military veteran Jerrod Sessler, and state Sen. Matt Boehnke, among others. Air Force veteran John Duresky is the only Democrat in the nonpartisan primary.
