Moderate Democrats argue progressive populist Abdul El-Sayed is incapable of winning over enough independents and centrists to become a U.S. senator.
DEARBORN, Mich.—Michigan voters are expected on Aug. 4 to choose between establishment Democrat Haley Stevens and her more progressive challenger, Abdul El-Sayed, in what many see as a bellwether for the future of the Democratic Party.
Democrats consider the November race a must-win in their efforts to retake the Senate from GOP control. As with any other race, a key question for Democrats is electability.
Stevens has underscored this attribute as an advantage over El-Sayed.
“Poll after poll shows I’m the strongest Democrat to beat Mike Rogers. But MAGA Republicans and their billionaire donors are trying to boost my opponent to shut down our momentum,” Stevens wrote in a campaign text sent on Aug. 2.
Polls between Stevens and El-Sayed have shown her trailing by double digits, but polls gauging hypothetical matchups with Rogers have painted a more complex picture.
While two surveys gave Stevens a lead over the Republican, a third poll gave El-Sayed the edge.
In the days leading up to the election, forecasters have also given El-Sayed overwhelmingly high odds despite his support for more left-wing positions on Medicare for All, abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and opposing U.S. military funding for Israel.
By contrast, Stevens has emphasized her record in Congress while pushing to bring manufacturing back to the Great Lakes State.
But even with El-Sayed’s recent surge, can a candidate with his positions win statewide in a purple battleground state like Michigan, which flipped to President Donald Trump twice since 2016?
“I think that’s the million-dollar question about this race and maybe the broader electoral cycle,” Joshua Koss, an assistant professor of political science at Eastern Michigan University, told The Epoch Times.
Polls and Electability
Voters have consolidated around Stevens and El-Sayed after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, a Democrat, suspended her campaign last month.
While El-Sayed has maintained a growing lead over Stevens in primary polls, his competitiveness with Rogers is still uncertain.
Stevens led Rogers by 0.8-percentage-points in a Glengariff poll released on July 28, while El-Sayed trailed the Republican by double digits.
A different poll released on Monday by EPIC-MRA gave her a two-point lead in November, while El-Sayed’s deficit on Rogers narrowed to three points.
But then El-Sayed tied with Rogers, and Stevens trailed the Republican by four points, in a Mitchell Research poll released on July 31.
The issue, according to Koss, is that it’s difficult to gauge voter sentiment with nearly 100 days before the general election, since so much can happen that changes voter sentiment.
There’s also the impact of outside spending.
Super political action committees (PACs) have spent more than $60 million to support Stevens, with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and its aligned groups spending more than $30 million alone, making it AIPAC’s biggest election investment in history.
“I think Abdul tries to make the case, maybe effectively, that his electability advantage over Stevens is that he has this grassroots support that will be sustained through the general,” the political science professor said.
However, if El-Sayed prevails, there’s a huge chance that AIPAC will pool its resources behind Rogers, whereas the group might remain “agnostic” if the matchup is between the Republican and Stevens, Koss said.
Retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who has endorsed Stevens, said there would be a lot of money spent on Michigan “regardless of what happens,” when asked if AIPAC would rally for Rogers if El-sayed is the nominee.
By Jacob Burg and Nathan Worcester
