A Weaker China to Meet With a More Wary US

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USโ€“China relations are at another inflection point and all eyes are on the Bidenโ€“Xi meeting in San Francisco next week.

When communist leader Xi Jinping met with President Joe Biden in November 2022, China considered itself the worldโ€™s role model in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. It watched America struggle over inflation risks. President Bidenโ€™s party had just lost the House majority, albeit with a much smaller margin than expected.

A year later, the tables may have turned. Inflation has somewhat cooled in the United States, and Chinaโ€™s economy has faltered after Mr. Xi ended his zero-COVID policy in December 2022. President Bidenโ€™s party scored sweeping victories in the off-year state elections. On top of that, Washington tightened its export controls on semiconductors in October and announced restrictions on U.S. investment in China in high tech in August.

The American business community has become increasingly uneasy in the current geopolitical climate. The U.S. semiconductor industry is concerned about the potential revenue impact, as China, the single largest chip market, makes up 36 percent of U.S. semiconductor sales, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). The business influence counterbalances the call for Washington to take a tougher position on Beijing.

All forces are converging toward the November Bidenโ€“Xi meeting in San Francisco. Their outcome will determine the yard’s scope and the fence’s height in the administrationโ€™s current โ€œsmall yard and high fenceโ€ approachโ€”a phrase used by national security adviser Jake Sullivan to describe Washingtonโ€™s plan to block critical technology from aiding Beijingโ€™s military.

James Lewis, a senior vice president and director of the strategic technologies program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said the U.S. answer to whether China has peaked will drive the next step in its policy.

โ€œIf you think itโ€™s peaked, then weโ€™ve done enough. If you donโ€™t think itโ€™s peaked, we havenโ€™t done enough,โ€ Mr. Lewis told The Epoch Times. โ€œSo thereโ€™s a difference about where China will go and what Chinaโ€™s doing.โ€

The Biden administration has reached an โ€œimpasseโ€ on the next steps, he said. During President Biden’s first two years, Washington acted on consensus items such as export controls and restrictions on U.S. investment in China in selected high-tech areas.

Byย Terri Wu

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