ANALYSIS: Arizona Braces for Unpredictable Three-Way Senate Race

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Kari Lake is campaigning, she just hasn’t clarified if she’s stumping for former President Donald Trump as a potential vice presidential candidate or, perhaps, running for the U.S. Senate.

Blake Masters, defeated in a competitive 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election by incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), is being courted to run for the Senate in 2024 but has not confirmed or denied his interest.

Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost 2022’s Republican gubernatorial primary to Ms. Lake; businessman Jim Lamon, who lost a 2022 Senate primary to Mr. Masters; and Arizona GOP Chairwoman Kelli Ward are among Republicans also purportedly pondering Senate runs.

But those aren’t the only falling shoes still up in the air in Arizona where the state’s Aug. 6, 2024, primaries are nearly a year away and its April 8 deadline for candidates to officially declare is still nine months down the road.

Incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), elected in 2018 as a Democrat before leaving the party in December 2022, has not announced her 2024 intentions, although she has filed campaign paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) in December to run as an independent.

That leaves Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) as the most prominent candidate thus far to officially declare he is in the race, announcing in January he was running for Ms. Sinema’s seat in what will be a well-financed campaign that should easily capture the Democrat nod next August.

Which all likely leads to this: An unprecedented three-way Arizona U.S. Senate election featuring Ms. Sinema—an incumbent without the backing of either major political party in a state where nearly 40 percent of the electorate is unaffiliated—pitted against a liberal in Gallego and against Ms. Lake or Mr. Masters or any one of an array of possible GOP party nominees ranging from relative moderates to MAGA conservatives.

Arizona Key GOP Target

Ms. Sinema’s seat will be one of 34 Senate spots on ballots across the nation in November 2024, including 20 held by Democrats, 11 by Republicans, and three by independents.

By John Haughey

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