Andrew McCarthy: COVID-19 Projection Models Are Proving to Be Unreliable

Contact Your Elected Officials

To describe as stunning the collapse of a key model the government has used to alarm the nation about the catastrophic threat of the coronavirus would not do this development justice.

In a space of just six days starting April 2, two revisions (on Sunday and Wednesday) have utterly discredited the model produced by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

I wrote about the IHME’s modeling at National Review on Monday, the day after the first revision — which was dramatic, but pales in comparison to Wednesday’s reassessment. This was not immediately apparent because the latest revision (Wednesday) did not include a side-by-side comparison, as did the Sunday revision.

Perusal of the new data, however, is staggering, as is what it says about government predictions we were hearing just days ago about the likelihood of 100,000 deaths, with as many as 240,000 a real possibility.

As I noted in my last post on this subject, by Sunday the projection of likely deaths had plunged 12 percent in just three days, 93,531 to 81,766. Understand, this projection is drawn from a range; on April 2, IHME was telling us cumulative COVID-19 deaths could reach as high as approximately 178,000. The upper range was also reduced on Sunday to about 136,000.

On Wednesday, the projected cumulative deaths were slashed to 60,145 (with the upper range again cut, to about 126,000). That is, in less than a week, the model proved to be off by more than 33 percent.

My use of the term “off” is intentional. There is no shortage of government spin, regurgitated by media commentators, assuring us that the drastic reductions in the projections over just a few days powerfully illustrate how well social distancing and the substantial shuttering of the economy is working.

Nonsense. As Alex Berenson points out on Twitter, with an accompanying screenshot data updated by IHME on April 1, the original April 2 model was explicitly “assuming full social distancing through May 2020.”

Read Full Article on National Review

Dr. Fauci on Criticism of Coronavirus Modeling

The Thinking Conservative
The Thinking Conservativehttps://www.thethinkingconservative.com/
The goal of THE THINKING CONSERVATIVE is to help us educate ourselves on conservative topics of importance to our freedom and our pursuit of happiness. We do this by sharing conservative opinions on all kinds of subjects, from all types of people, and all kinds of media, in a way that will challenge our perceptions and help us to make educated choices.

Democrats are Losing by Pushing Their Dirty CR Bill

Talk is going around about the “Democrats Dirty CR” and the “Republicans Clean CR”.

NCAA streamlines transfer portal

The NCAA lords of the Division I Administrative Committee have unveiled a fresh batch of transfer portal reforms.

Section 230 Immunity, Defective Design and Trial Lawyers (Part 2)

Congress granted social media platforms Section 230 immunity even when children are harmed, trial lawyers found a way to bypass protection.

A Tale Of Two Political Parties

While the GOP, led by Trump, has produced results, Democrats offer horrible policies and candidates, presenting a vivid contrast to the American people. 

The Case for Western Islam

The suggestion of a expression of Islam which emerges from western culture is one that comes from a place of love.

Democrats are Losing by Pushing Their Dirty CR Bill

Talk is going around about the “Democrats Dirty CR” and the “Republicans Clean CR”.

Biden Undergoing Radiation, Hormone Treatment for Prostate Cancer

Former President Biden has begun receiving a combination of radiation and hormone treatments for prostate cancer, spokesperson announced.

Homan Says DOJ Probing Funding Behind ‘Organized’ Attacks on ICE

Border czar, Homan said DOJ launched an investigation into funding for what he called “organized” attacks on federal immigration enforcement agents.

There Are No Survivors in the Blast at a Tennessee Explosives Factory, Sheriff Says

The blast in rural Tennessee that leveled an explosives plant and was felt for miles around left no survivors, authorities said Saturday

Trump Names Longtime Adviser Dan Scavino to Key Personnel Position

One of President Trump’s longtime advisers, Dan Scavino, is going to be in charge of selecting and appointing key positions within the executive branch.

First Lady’s Effort Helped Reunite 8 War-Displaced Children With Their Families

First lady Melania Trump said 8 children impacted by the fighting between Ukraine and Russia were reunited with their families on Oct. 9.

Trump to Impose New 100 Percent Tariff on China on Nov. 1

President Trump said that the US will impose an additional 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods and export controls on critical software starting on Nov. 1.

Trump Admin Agrees to $20 Billion Rescue Plan for Argentina

The U.S. government has finalized a $20 billion economic rescue plan for Argentina, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Oct. 9.
spot_img

Related Articles

Popular Categories

MAGA Business Central