As anyone who understands how these things unfold could have foreseen, the president over the weekend shifted the goalposts from knocking out Iranian nuclear facilities to explicitly calling for regime change:
“It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”
The neoconservative theory of the case is that, now that the Iranian regime is up against the wall, either external or internal pressure or some combination thereof will finish the job, the regime will be replaced by some Western-friendly alternative (like the delusional belief that the Shah’s failson could get reinstalled) or the country will be balkanized and befell by factional internal conflict (a la Syria), and utlimately regional peace will be secured.
None of this is likely to come to fruition without major, probably kinetic, pushback from both Russia and China.
For one thing, Iran is an indispensable stepping stone along the highly ambitious Belt and Road initiative designed to turn China from a major into a dominant commercial player on the world stage.
Via Newsweek (emphasis added):
“As Israel and Iran exchanged missile fire on Tuesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping called on Central Asian countries to deepen cooperation under China’s “Belt and Road” infrastructure initiative. This marks the latest step in what analysts call Beijing’s diplomatic offensive and was highlighted in a recent podcast by the China-Global South Project (CGSP).
At a summit in Astana, Kazakhstan on Tuesday, [Chinese prime minister] Xi announced a dozen cooperation agreements spanning green mining, trade, connectivity, personnel exchanges, and customs, according to Chinese state media. The previous week, China secured $11.4 billion in deals during the fourth China-Africa trade expo, hosted by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Changsha, Hunan Province.
The two powers are “going in very divergent directions,” said Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of CGSP.
The CGSP podcast discussion turned to China’s vocal support for Iran, after Xi spoke out Tuesday to rebuke Israel for sparking the ongoing conflict with its surprise attack last week.”
Related: Chinese Communist Party Literally Names Its Domestic Surveillance Program ‘Skynet’
For its part, Russia signed in January a “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty with Iran across multiple sectors. The Caucuses have been a hotbed of geopolitical conflict between the West and Russia in recent years, with Iran just south of the region as a major bulwark.
Iran has also equipped Russia with thousands of drones and allowed Russia to use its technology to produce more, which Russia desperately needs on the frontline with Ukraine.
Via Reuters, September 2024 (emphasis added):
“Ukraine’s foreign ministry said on Friday that Russia had launched 8,060 Iran-developed Shahed drones at Ukraine since it began its full-scale invasion 2-1/2 years ago.
“The partnership between Russia and Iran has resulted in lost homes and lost lives,” the foreign ministry said on X…
The Wall Street Journal reported in May this year that Moscow was also actively producing Shahed type drones by Iranian technology at a plant in the Tartarstan Republic. Until now, Iranian military support for Moscow has been most visible in the supply of those drones, which carry a smaller payload and are easier to shoot down because they travel at a fraction of the speed of ballistic missiles.”
Accordingly, Russian and Iranian geopolitical interests are deeply aligned, which means any regime change operation attempted by Israel or the United States would not be allowed to succeed without extreme resistance from Iran’s patron — as conveyed by Dmitry Medvedev’s threat to arm Iran with nukes as a deterrent.
Via New York Post (emphasis added):
“Moscow warned Sunday that several nations are prepared to supply Tehran with nuclear weapons, as Russia and China condemned America’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as deputy head of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Security Council, claimed Saturday’s US airstrike — the first to use 15-ton GBU-57 “bunker-buster” bombs in combat — only caused minimal damage to Tehran’s nuclear sites, including the fortified Fordow enrichment plant.
Medvedev, who did not specify which countries are ready to arm Tehran, reiterated that the attacks would not stop Russia’s ally in the Middle East from acquiring nuclear weapons.”
