China’s real economic output in 2025 likely expanded by less than half of what the regime claimed, according to a new analysis by Rhodium Group.
A new analysis estimating China’s real expansion at merely half the claimed rate exposes a statistical void that has blinded the leadership to its fragility, accelerating global isolation and confirming the regime’s inability to rival Washington, experts say.
China’s real economic output in 2025 likely expanded by just 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent, according to a Dec. 22 report by the global consultancy firm Rhodium Group.
The estimate is roughly half the 5.2 percent growth through the first three quarters claimed by China’s State Council.
Rhodium linked the low growth estimate primarily to collapsing fixed asset investment (FAI), which declined 11 percent year-on-year between July and November.
Overall credit growth to finance investment reached all-time lows, a trend driven by “high real interest rates and deflationary pressures” that have reduced incentives for new borrowing.
History offers “no examples of economies that have recorded 5 percent real GDP growth while facing years of persistent deflation, as China has for 10 consecutive quarters,” the consultancy stated.
“We doubt China is the first,” it said.
Figures versus Reality
Tsai Ming-fang, a professor at the Department of Industrial Economics at Tamkang University in Taiwan, noted that Beijing’s official growth figures appear suspiciously close to the 5 percent level seen in 2024, saying such stability simply does not square with fundamental economic indicators.
According to Chinese official data, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7 percent in November, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 2.2 percent. This marks the 38th consecutive month of decline.
“Exports cannot fully offset the decline in consumption and investment; therefore, I believe official data is overestimated, and Rhodium Group’s estimate is a more normal result,” Tsai told The Epoch Times.
Echoing these concerns, Liu Meng-chun, director of the First Research Division at the Taipei-based Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, highlighted previous doubts raised by Rhodium Group, attributing the discrepancies to local officials smoothing data to secure promotions and manufacture an image of competent economic management.
“Insufficient domestic demand, industrial overcapacity, and a continuous property slump combined with high unemployment reflect that the GDP growth rate is likely overestimated,” Liu told The Epoch Times.
The Price of Fabrication
Liu warned that manipulating economic data not only misleads investors but also causes Beijing to misjudge its position in the trade war with the United States, forcing the regime to rely on low-cost coercive tactics to compete.
“Fabricating a robust economy to attract foreign investment is a poor choice that serves only domestic political purposes, intended to manufacture an illusion of effective leadership under [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping,” Liu stated.
He Jiang-bing, a financial commentator in China, observed that the record trade surplus of $1.08 trillion in the first 11 months of this year has emboldened Chinese officials to believe they have the upper hand, leading them to impose sanctions that effectively antagonize the global community.
“Beijing has offended almost all consumers of Chinese exports, a critical policy error that has prompted the Trump administration to build supply chains excluding China, crack down on Chinese ‘origin washing,’ and impose some of its highest tariffs on Chinese goods,” He told The Epoch Times.
Origin washing, also known as transshipment, refers to practices that help shippers disguise the source of goods to evade levies, with methods extending to container swapping and neutral labeling.
Regarding Beijing’s earlier restrictions on rare earth exports, He stressed that these measures have ultimately backfired.
“Trump is now building rare earth supply chains with Japan, Pakistan, Australia, Canada, and Congo to leverage their technology and reserves, which accelerates ongoing decoupling and proves that Chinese restrictions will have little long-term effect,” said He.
By Jarvis Lim
