Can Putin Legally Stop The Conflict Without First Controlling All The Disputed Territory?

Contact Your Elected Officials

The Constitutional Court would likely have to rule on this hypothetical scenario due to 2020โ€™s constitutional amendment prohibiting the cession of Russian territory except in certain cases.

RTโ€™s reportย on Steve Witkoffโ€™s claim that Russia has made โ€œsome concessionsโ€ on territorial issues, which signal a โ€œsignificantโ€ shift towards โ€œmoderationโ€, prompted talk about whether Putin can legally stop theย specialย operationย without first controlling all the disputed territory that Moscow claims as its own. He himselfย demandedย in June 2024 that the Ukrainian Armed Forces โ€œmust be withdrawn from the entire territory of these regions within their administrative borders at the time of their being part of Ukraine.โ€

Moreover, the agreements under whichย Donetsk,ย Lugansk,ย Zaporozhye, andย Khersonย joined Russia all describe their administrative boundaries as those that existed โ€œon the day of [their] formationโ€, thus suggesting that the entirety of their regions are indeed legally considered by Russia to be its own. Putin alsoย famously declaredย during the signing of those treaties in late September 2022 that โ€œthe people living [there] have become our citizens, foreverโ€ and that โ€œRussia will not betray [their choice to join it]โ€.

Nevertheless, Putin could still hypothetically โ€œmoderateโ€ this demand.ย Article 67.2.1ย of theย Russian Constitution, which entered into force after 2020โ€™s constitutional referendum, stipulates that โ€œActions (except delimitation, demarcation, and re-demarcation of the state border of the Russian Federation with adjacent states) aimed at alienating part of the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as calls for such actions, are not permitted.โ€ โ€œModerationโ€ could thus hypothetically be an โ€œexceptionโ€.

To be absolutely clear, no call is being made within this analysis for Russia to โ€œcedeโ€ any territory that it considers to be its own, nor have any Russian officials lent any credence whatsoever to Witkoffโ€™s claim. That said, if Putin concludes for whatever reason that Russiaโ€™s national interests are now best served by โ€œmoderatingโ€ its territorial claims after all that happened since September 2022โ€™s referenda, then any proposed โ€œre-demarcation of the state borderโ€ would likely require the Constitutional Courtโ€™s approval.

He’s a lawyer by training so it would make sense for him to proactively ask them to rule on the legality of this hypothetical solution to theย Ukrainian Conflict. Even if he instead hypothetically proposes retaining his countryโ€™s territorial claims but freezing the military phase of the conflict and only advancing those claims through political means, heโ€™d still likely seek their judgement too. Theyโ€™re the final authority on constitutional issues and these scenarios require their expertise per their connection to Article 67.2.1.

If they hypothetically rule in his favor, the question would then arise about the fate of those living in the Ukrainian-controlled parts of those regions who Putin said โ€œhave become our citizens, forever.โ€ They might rule that those who didnโ€™t take part in the referenda, such as the residents of Zaporozhye city, arenโ€™t Russian citizens. Those that did but then fell under Ukrainian control, such as the residents of Kherson city, might be deemed citizens who could move to Russia if Ukraine lets them as part of a deal.

To remind the reader, no Russian officials at the time of this analysisโ€™ publication have lent any credence whatsoever to Witkoffโ€™s claim that Russia made โ€œsome concessionsโ€ on territorial issues, so it remains solely a hypothetical scenario for now. Even so, Putin might hypothetically conclude that such โ€œmoderationโ€ is the best way to advance Russiaโ€™s national interests in the current context (such asย part of a grand compromise), in which case the Constitutional Court would likely have to rule on its legality.

Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybkohttps://korybko.substack.com/
Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst with a PhD from MGIMO University.

Shut it Down – Shut it Down

Shut down and dismantle every federal agency not essential to citizens' life, health, or liberty โ€” phase them out and end their power. permanently!

Conservatism’s Diverse Meanings

Conservatives in America often seem united, but major differences exist, creating the false impression that "conservative" means the same to everyone..

Illegal Alien Iowa School Superintendent Exposed

There is an interesting story developing in Iowa, the...

Was Scandinaviaโ€™s Russian Drone Scare A False Flag To Crack Down On Russiaโ€™s Shadow Fleet?

Insight strongly suggests that Scandinaviaโ€™s Russian drone scare was indeed a false flag to justify cracking down on Russiaโ€™s โ€œshadow fleetโ€,

77% of U.S. Counties Record โ€˜Notable Declinesโ€™ in Child Vaxx Rates

Vast majority of counties across the US are experiencing declining rates of childhood vaccination and have been for years, says NBC News investigation.

Impact of Government Shutdown on Social Security: What to Know

SSA made it clear that retirement, survivor, and disability benefits are not subject to annual budget fights and will continue to be paid on time.

No Change to Immigration, Border Policy During Government Shutdown: ICE

ICE officials said that border and immigration enforcement will not be affected by the government shutdown that began on Oct. 1.

Musk Urges Netflix Boycott Over โ€˜Transgender Woke Agendaโ€™ in Kidsโ€™ Shows

Elon Musk is urging parents to boycott Netflix, accusing the streaming giant of pushing a โ€œtransgender woke agendaโ€ on children.

Walmart Says It Is Removing Dyes From Food Brands

Walmart is going to eliminate synthetic dyes and some other artificial additives from products it sells under its own brands, including Great Value.

White House Withdraws EJ Antoniโ€™s Nomination to Lead Bureau of Labor Statistics

The White House has withdrawn economist EJ Antoniโ€™s nomination to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the White House confirmed on Sept. 30.

US to Impose 100 Percent Tariffs on Foreign-Made Movies, Trump Says

President Donald Trump announced on Sept. 29 that he will impose a 100 percent tariff on all movies produced outside the United States.

Trump to Host Netanyahu at White House to Discuss Gaza Peace Plan

President Trump will host Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House on Sept. 29 to discuss a ceasefire and broader peace plan for Gaza.

Trump Announces New Tariffs on Heavy Trucks, Drugs, Kitchen Cabinets, Other Products

President Trump will impose new tariffs next month on heavy trucks, branded drugs, kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and related products.
spot_img

Related Articles