Catastrophic Contagion 2025 – A Global Challenge Exercise

Center for Health Security: “The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, in partnership with WHO and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, conducted Catastrophic Contagion, a pandemic tabletop exercise at the Grand Challenges Annual Meeting in Brussels, Belgium, on October 23, 2022.

The extraordinary group of participants consisted of 10 current and former Health Ministers and senior public health officials from Senegal, Rwanda, Nigeria, Angola, Liberia, Singapore, India, Germany, as well as Bill Gates, co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The exercise simulated a series of WHO emergency health advisory board meetings addressing a fictional pandemic set in the near future. Participants grappled with how to respond to an epidemic located in one part of the world that then spread rapidly, becoming a pandemic with a higher fatality rate than COVID-19 and disproportionately affecting children and young people.

Participants were challenged to make urgent policy decisions with limited information in the face of uncertainty. Each problem and choice had serious health, economic, and social ramifications.โ€ฏ”

Center For Health Security Website

Center For Health Security YouTube Channel

Catastrophic Contagion Highlights Reel


The Event 201 Scenario (October 18, 2019)

Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.

The disease starts in pig farms in Brazil, quietly and slowly at first, but then it starts to spread more rapidly in healthcare settings. When it starts to spread efficiently from person to person in the low-income, densely packed neighborhoods of some of the megacities in South America, the epidemic explodes. It is first exported by air travel to Portugal, the United States, and China and then to many other countries. Although at first some countries are able to control it, it continues to spread and be reintroduced, and eventually no country can maintain control.

There is no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year. There is a fictional antiviral drug that can help the sick but not significantly limit spread of the disease.

Since the whole human population is susceptible, during the initial months of the pandemic, the cumulative number of cases increases exponentially, doubling every week. And as the cases and deaths accumulate, the economic and societal consequences become increasingly severe.

The scenario ends at the 18-month point, with 65 million deaths. The pandemic is beginning to slow due to the decreasing number of susceptible people. The pandemic will continue at some rate until there is an effective vaccine or until 80-90 % of the global population has been exposed. From that point on, it is likely to be an endemic childhood disease.


Selected moments from the Event 201 pandemic tabletop exercise hosted by The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. The exercise illustrated the pandemic preparedness efforts needed to diminish the large-scale economic and societal consequences of a severe pandemic. Drawing from actual events, Event 201 identifies important policy issues and preparedness challenges that could be solved with sufficient political will and attention. These issues were designed in a narrative to engage and educate the participants and the audience.

The Thinking Conservative
The Thinking Conservativehttps://www.thethinkingconservative.com/
The goal of THE THINKING CONSERVATIVE is to help us educate ourselves on conservative topics of importance to our freedom and our pursuit of happiness. We do this by sharing conservative opinions on all kinds of subjects, from all types of people, and all kinds of media, in a way that will challenge our perceptions and help us to make educated choices.

The Looming Threat To Our Homeland

After success of โ€œOperation Midnight Hammer,โ€ where U.S. military bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, the threat to America has never been greater.

Groundhog Day came late this year to the Land of Smiles.

itโ€™s the same rigmarole, on whatever pretext, the army commandeers the Thai state with vague promises to restore democracy at some unspecified future date.

Resource number one

Russia has an unsustainable birthrate worsened by mortality rate of Russian males through war and alcoholism. One solution, steal young children from other countries.ย 

Expansionist CCP Runs Amok in Pacific After U.S. Relocates Naval Assets to Mid-East

Caveat established, Chinaโ€™s been going bananas on the high seas as the eyes of the world, and U.S. military assets, hone in on Iran.

The Anti-Trump Protests โ€“ Why Are They So Important?

The anti-Trump stance is not a political position, but a desperate gesture, a mental diagnosis of those who refuse to accept the reality of the World today.

21.8 Million US Seniors Paying for Expenses With Only Social Security Income: Survey

An estimated 21.8 million senior citizens in America make ends meet solely using their social security funds, The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) said.

Oil Prices Drop by 7 Percent as Marketโ€™s Iran Fear Factor Fades

Crude oil prices plummeted by more than 7% as investors were optimistic that Iranโ€™s limited retaliation could lead to a de-escalation in the Middle East.

New York Launches First New Nuclear Energy Project in US in 15 Years

Hochul directed NYโ€™s power authority to begin evaluation of techs, business models, and locations to develop stateโ€™s first nuclear power plant in 50 years.

Supreme Court Temporarily Allows Deportations to Third Countries

Supreme Court temporarily lifted lower court order blocking Trump admin from deporting illegals to so-called third countries they have no connection.

No Changes Planned for FDAโ€™s Vaccine Advisory Committee โ€˜At This Timeโ€™: Spokesperson

There are no plans to remove any members of the panel that advises the FDA on vaccines, a spokesperson said on June 20.

Trump Says Trade Deals Expected With India and Pakistan

President Trump expects US will sign trade deals with India and Pakistan, signaling growing momentum in push to reshape global trade through tariff diplomacy.

Trump Says US Intelligence Communityโ€™s Assessment of Iranโ€™s Nuclear Program โ€˜Was Wrongโ€™

President Trump said his director of national intelligenceโ€™s assessment in March that Iran had yet to decide on building a nuclear weapon was wrong.

NIH Ends Gain-of-Function Research, Implementing Trumpโ€™s Executive Order

The NIH announced the end of gain-of-function research. The instituteโ€™s update said the move is in compliance with President Trumpโ€™s EO on the topic.ย 
spot_img

Related Articles