I predicted long before the Iran war kicked off in March that 2026 would be the year the CCP pulls the trigger on its long-awaited incursion across the Taiwan Strait to reclaim what it views as its wayward island redoubt.
Among other reasons for my crystal-ball prophecy, Xi Jinping himself essentially declared the conquest as a Chinese New Year’s Resolution of sorts, describing the forced “reunification” of Taiwan with China as “unstoppable.”
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I can find no indication that my prediction was flawed, and I stand behind it.
In the CCP’s eyes, the unfolding geopolitical crisis in Iran may provide a golden opportunity to initiate hostilities while the United States military is distracted and stretched thin. No matter how massive the superpower, fighting a three-front war in far-off regions is usually a recipe for disaster.
In the event of such an invasion, Taiwan’s ostensible regional allies in the neoliberal fold likely wouldn’t be willing or able to do much to thwart China either.
Via Asia Times:
“If the Iran conflict continues for an extended period, lasting months rather than weeks, while casualties mount and the US appears bogged down, Chinese President Xi Jinping might be tempted to finally make good on his threat to move against Taiwan, a “reunification” he recently characterized as “unstoppable.”
China might assess that its military overmatch around Taiwan is such that the US can’t amass enough force to forestall or respond to a Chinese assault without suffering heavy losses.
And if the Americans don’t take the lead, no other regional nation will, not even nearby Japan. Despite impressive niche capabilities, the Japan Self Defense Force can’t fight a major war on its own…
The Iran conflict compounds the distraction and resource drain. Whatever the US does in Iran or provides to Ukraine is not available for a fight in the Western Pacific, and the US military may eventually need to draw on stocks allocated for an Asia-Pacific contingency…
But maybe US allies can make up the difference? Unlikely. Japan is remilitarizing, but has a long way to go. South Korea is a huge arms producer but focuses on North Korea, and it’s questionable what Seoul would do in the event of a Taiwan conflict.
Leftist President Lee Jae-myung and his administration are reluctant to anger China. And President Lee himself said, while a candidate, that what China did to Taiwan was not South Korea’s business.”
Reports over the past week indicate the recent movement of Patriot missiles and other munitions out of South Korea to fortify the U.S. posture in the Persian Gulf.
Via Reuters:
“South Korea can deter any threats from North Korea even if Washington redeploys weapons stationed in the country, President Lee Jae Myung said on Tuesday, after reports that U.S. missile defence systems were being sent to the Middle East.
Reports on shifting key U.S. military assets have sparked concern in Asia about the potential gaps in regional defences if Washington diverts ships and missiles used to deter military flexing by China and North Korea to other theatres.
“It appears that there is controversy recently over U.S. Forces in Korea shipping some weapons, such as artillery batteries and air-defence weapons, out of the country,” Lee said in a cabinet meeting, noting that while Seoul had expressed opposition, it was not in a position to make demands.
Lee said the removal of some U.S. weapons from the country “does not hinder deterrence strategy towards North Korea,” noting South Korea’s defence spending and conventional capabilities far exceeded those of North Korea.
South Korea hosts a major U.S. military presence in combined defence against nuclear-armed North Korea, with about 28,500 troops and surface-to-air defence systems...
South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said on Friday that U.S. and South Korean militaries were discussing the possible redeployment of some U.S. Patriot missile defence systems to the conflict in the Middle East.
South Korean media reported some missile batteries had been shipped out of Osan Air Base and were likely to be redeployed to U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, though South Korean authorities have not confirmed these reports.”
Reporting over the weekend indicates recently increased Chinese aerial activity near Taiwan, likely to probe defenses and gauge the diplomatic response from the U.S., Japan, South Korea, et al., and possibly to flex some muscle ahead of Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing.
Via Politico:
“Taiwan saw a surge of Chinese military planes near the island, its defense ministry said Sunday, after a sharp drop in flights over the past two weeks had sparked discussions among observers.
The ministry detected 26 Chinese military aircraft around the island on Saturday, with 16 of them entering its northern, central and southwestern Air Defense Identification Zone. Seven naval ships were spotted around the island, it reported.”
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A few considerations should China pull the trigger:
· Could the United States and its allies realistically fight a three-front war in Eurasia, the Middle East, and the Orient?
· Could American allies, which have long neglected their own defense spending as they have enjoyed the warm embrace of the American “security umbrella,” as it’s known, pull their own weight in each theater?
· Does the global oil squeeze help or hurt China’s military capacity, given that almost all of its oil supplies come through the Strait of Hormuz?
· In the event of escalation, should the U.S. et al. rush to defend Taiwan, would Chinese allies like North Korea and Pakistan, also both nuclear powers, join in?
Another important and underappreciated dynamic in the latent Chinese-Taiwan war is semiconductor production.
Gigantic American (well, multinational, but nominally American) tech companies like Google, Apple, and Amazon source nearly all of their semiconductors from Taiwan, without which they’d be SOL.
Were China to capture those production facilities, it could potentially set tech progress back significantly, drag the economy into the dirt, and serve as a major bargaining chip with which to bully the United States in any future negotiations.
Any American with a stake in the economy and a vested interest in maintaining the strength of the dollar — which, by the way, is existentially threatened by Gulf states not trading oil in greenbacks, as they currently are not — ought to pray this whole latent World War III scenario works itself out peaceably sooner rather than later.
