Populist-nationalist politician Andrej Babis is poised to return to the premiership after his party’s victory in the latest elections. They lack a majority but are expected to build a coalition with some of the smaller parties that share their worldview. This is a major development since Czechia has been under liberal-globalist control since Babis lost re-election in 2021, and although former high-level NATO official Petr Pavel is still president, the prime minister has more power. Here’s why his return is so important:
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1. Czechia Might Soon Move To The Right On Socio-Cultural Issues
The coalition that he’s expected to build with smaller like-minded parties could push him closer to the right on socio-cultural issues due to their more hardline views. One of Reuters’ media platforms is very concerned about this scenario and warned that “Czech vote puts same-sex marriage, LGBTQ+ rights in the balance”. According to their assessment, he might seek to draft his own version of Hungary’s anti-LGBT propaganda bill and/or enshrine two genders in the constitution like neighboring Slovakia just did.
2. It’ll Also Likely Implement A More Pragmatic Policy Towards Ukraine
The era of Czechia providing maximum political-military support for Ukraine might soon be over if Babis’ post-election comments are anything to go by. He declared that it’s not ready to join the EU and strongly suggested cutting off military-technical aid too. The latter could see Czechia disband the Western initiative that it leads for scouring the world for ammo for Ukraine or transferring control of it to NATO, either of which could lead to supply disruptions that weaken the front, according to the New York Times.
3. The “Orban Model” Could Therefore Prove Its Applicability In the Region
If Babis behaves as expected on the domestic and foreign policy fronts, then this would prove the applicability of the so-called “Orban model” in Central Europe. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s return to office in October 2023 saw him promptly following in his Hungarian counterpart’s footsteps, but some observers questioned whether this was really the start of a trend. All doubts would be dispelled if Babis did the same, which would confirm the relevance of this model to the region.
4. There Might Be Grounds For Gradually Reviving The Visegrad Group
The Visegrad Group of those three and Poland has been informally suspended due to Warsaw’s dislike of Orban’s approach towards the Ukrainian Conflict. Poland’s new conservative-nationalist president Karol Nawrocki said over the summer that he’ll prioritize this group, however, so their shared domestic visions and his comparative foreign policy pragmatism could set the basis for dong so. His liberal-globalist government still hates Orban, but Poland’s de facto two foreign policies could still lead to some progress.
5. Central Europe’s Geopolitical Prominence Continues Rising
The widespread attention paid to the latest Czech elections and the aforementioned most likely consequences thereof confirm that Central Europe’s geopolitical prominence continues rising. This is especially significant as regards Poland’s grand strategic plans to restore its status as a Great Power via the “Three Seas Initiative” that it leads, which encompasses all of Central Europe. Reviving the Visegrad Group after Babis’ return to office would create a core of countries for more easily achieving these plans.
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In view of the above, the Czech elections are important because they represent the spread of the “Orban model” further across Central Europe, which provides the domestic basis for gradually reviving the Visegrad Group if Nawrocki truly has the political will. The differences between its members over Russia could still be a hindrance to closer cooperation, but if he pragmatically puts them aside in pursuit of Poland’s grand strategic goals, then this group might soon return to the fore of regional politics.
