Everyone in Europe is wondering what form French President Macron’s potential plans to extend his country’s nuclear umbrella over the rest of the continent could take, especially considering the risks that they could entail after Moscow’s very negative reaction. Putin suggested that Macron was following in Napoleon’s footsteps, while Foreign Minister Lavrov was much more direct in describing Macron’s words as a threat and even outright comparing him to Hitler. Macron’s move could therefore escalate tensions.
The Economist published an article about the options at his disposal, the most realistic of which is to station nuclear-capable Rafales in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) and include some of those countries in its quarterly nuclear air force drills codenamed “Poker”. According to one of their sources, “In recent days, other allies (than Italy, which participated once in 2022) have offered to take part.” The most obvious candidate is Poland, whose prime minister declared earlier this month that he wants nukes.
Its outgoing president once again appealed to the US in his latest interview with the Financial Times last week to host some of its nuclear weapons but was promptly shot down by Vice President Vance, who said that he’d be “shocked” if Trump agreed because it could lead to a “nuclear conflict”. Seeing as how France has been Poland’s ally since the Napoleonic era, notwithstanding how it hung Poland out to dry against the Nazis, Poland might now therefore prioritize The Economist’s proposed French option.
That would be a volte-face if there ever was one since Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Szejna from the ruling liberal-globalist coalition, which opposes the outgoing (and very imperfect) conservative president, responded to last May’s US nuke request with solid points that also hold true for French ones. In his words, “Poland will not become a nuclear power (since it wouldn’t obtain operational control over these weapons), and Russian missiles will be aimed at these facilities (where they’re based).”
Poland might therefore hold off on hosting French nuclear-armed Rafales, which would in any case be a major decision likely requiring a lot of negotiations and planning instead of a swift move by both, in favor of participating in its quarterly “Poker” drills instead. In that event, these would become prestige-building exercises showcasing the renewed strength of their historical alliance, which would also likely aim to co-manage CEE between them as forecasted in one of the scenarios recently shared here.
The prestige element is important since there’s no credible “Russian threat” to Poland or France to justify including Poland in France’s “Poker” drills, let alone possibly basing nuclear-armed Rafales there, but dramatic stunts such as the one described above could rally some Europeans. In particular, these are the bloc’s liberal-globalist elite who’ve come to believe their own propaganda about Russia and some of the CEE people with pathological fears of it, both of whom would fall under joint Franco-Polish influence.
Poland might fall further under French influence too with time, in which case its opposition to the French-led proposal for a “European Army” – which was recently endorsed by Zelensky but was subsequently rebuffed by Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski – might gradually erode. That would largely depend on the outcome of May’s presidential election in Poland, however, since the liberal-globalist candidate might go along with this while the conservative and populist ones would remain against it.
If the ruling coalition captures the presidency, then greater French influence over Poland in the event of Poland being invited to participate in France’s quarterly “Poker” drills and possibly one day hosting its nuclear-armed Rafales could first see Poland inviting more foreign military forces onto its territory. This would align with Tusk’s proposal last week for the EU and NATO to jointly secure Poland’s eastern border. In line with their preferences, he and his president would likely prefer EU forces over NATO/US ones.
The conservative and populist opposition (which aren’t one and the same) prefer the opposite, NATO/US forces over EU ones, so more foreign forces might ultimately be based in Poland regardless. Nevertheless, the point is that any “European Army” might establish a major military presence in Poland if the liberal-globalist candidate becomes president, after which Poland might pivot towards what might by then be a possibly French-led instead of German-led EU at the expense of its alliance with America.
About that, Tusk and Sikorski made irresponsible past statements about Trump such as smearing him as a “Russian agent”, and Secretary of State Rubio just put Sikorski in his place for lending false credence to rumors about Musk cutting Ukraine off from Starlink, so bilateral ties aren’t too good right now. They’ll therefore likely become even worse if the liberal-globalists assume full control over the government upon winning the presidency and then make tangible moves to pivot Poland away from the US.
A new European security architecture is forming as the Ukrainian Conflict approaches its inevitable end, and among the most significant variables shaping its final configuration is the relationship between France and Poland, with the outcome of the latter’s next presidential election influencing these ties. Poland could hypothetically participate in France’s “Poker” drills under a conservative or populist president while still remaining closer to the US, but this balance is unlikely under a liberal-globalist one.
Poland’s closer alignment with either the EU (via France) or the US might therefore be the most important factor in determining what this security architecture looks like due to the country’s immense economic and military weight on Russia’s western frontier. While the expansion of French influence over Poland might be a given if it begins participating in the “Poker” drills, which makes sense from its perspective, the next presidential election will likely decide whether this turns into a full-blown pivot.
