Lt. Gen. Alexander Sollfrank, who leads Berlin’s joint operations command and oversees defense planning, said he believed such an attack was ‘possible.’
Russia could launch a limited attack against a NATO country at any time, a top German military officer said on Nov. 7.
“If you look at Russia’s current capabilities and combat power, Russia could kick off a small-scale attack against NATO territory as early as tomorrow,” Lt. Gen. Alexander Sollfrank said.
“Small, quick, regionally limited, nothing big—Russia is too tied down in Ukraine for that.”
Sollfrank, who leads Berlin’s joint operations command and oversees defense planning, said that despite Moscow’s forces being unable to overwhelm Ukraine, they retain substantial air force capabilities, and its nuclear arsenal remains completely unaffected by the war.
Additionally, at sea, though the Kremlin’s Black Sea Fleet has suffered significant losses, the rest of the Russian Navy remains at full strength, he said.
Whether or not Russia would choose to mount an attack on a NATO nation would be based on Moscow’s military strength, track record, and leadership, Sollfrank said, adding that his analysis led him to conclude that “a Russian attack is in the realm of the possible.”
Sollfrank’s comments come as Russia has been blamed for incursions into European airspace in recent months, notably in Poland and Estonia, although Moscow has denied NATO’s accusations of repeated airspace violations.
This prompted NATO to launch a major air operation, dubbed “Eastern Sentry,” in September with the stated aim of defending its eastern flank.
As part of the operation, Danish, French, German, and British jets are now flying sorties across the region.
Last month, Alexus Grynkewich, a U.S. Air Force general serving as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said that Moscow appeared to have been deterred by the response but that Moscow is expected to continue testing boundaries.
“We do see indications that the Russians are trying to be more careful, that they recognize that they came close to or crossed a line in a couple of cases, particularly when you consider the drone event in Poland,” he said.
“We’ll have a deterrent effect, but they’re going to continue to try to move and take hybrid approaches to how they challenge the alliance.”
By Guy Birchall
