Trump Ekes Out a Commanding Win in the Iowa Caucuses
He won a majority against a divided opposition—but came close to falling short.
Iowa was a historic victory for Donald Trump. He won a majority of votes cast and carried 98 of 99 counties, which no Republican or Democratic presidential aspirant in a seriously contested caucus has ever done. Both his 51% finish and nearly 30-point margin over his nearest competitor were also impressive.
This strong showing sends Mr. Trump into next Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary in better shape than any previous nonincumbent Republican presidential hopeful. He even received a microboost from the end of Vivek Ramaswamy’s vanity campaign. Mr. Ramaswamy’s supporters are likely to move from the mini-me Trump to the real deal.
Still, Mr. Trump was on the edge of a bad night. The Associated Press says he got above 50% by only 1,110 votes. If he hadn’t made it over the halfway mark, critics would have spent the next week hammering that a majority of Republicans rejected him.
Mr. Trump can thank his political advisers—Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita—for his vote share’s exceeding his 48% showing in the last Des Moines Register poll before the caucus. His team mined valuable data collected from attendees at his roughly 55 Iowa speeches and rallies to build a formidable turnout operation. No past Trump campaign had that kind of meticulous organization.
It’s also notable that the second-place race was so close. Only 2,335 votes separated Ron DeSantis from Nikki Haley, according to AP. Over the past year, Mr. DeSantis’s super PAC knocked on 947,000 Iowa doors, recruited 1,704 caucus captains, and identified 40,000 supporters. In the past few weeks, the super PAC made 268,000 volunteer calls. Without that extensive effort, Mr. DeSantis likely would have come in third. Ironically, his campaign cashiered the officials responsible for this impressive ground game six weeks before the caucus.
By Karl Rove
