Buoyed by recent electoral wins, Takaichi is moving the country to a defensive posture against China.
News Analysis
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi emerged from a snap election on Feb. 8 with a mandate rare in postwar politics: a two-thirds supermajority in the more powerful lower house.
The result capped a three-month period of strained Japan–China relations over Taiwan and Japan’s assertion that it had a right to respond if a conflict threatened its survival.
During a Nov. 7, 2025, lower house session, Takaichi said that a crisis involving Taiwan—such as Chinese “armed actions” including the deployment of warships—“could constitute a survival-threatening situation” for Japan, potentially justifying a military response.
Beijing then took a series of aggressive steps: It urged Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan because of heightened tensions. It suspended Japanese seafood imports while citing inadequate water checks. A Chinese diplomat even posted a threat online to “cut off” Takaichi’s neck over her Taiwan stance.
Beijing’s response was widely read in Tokyo as an attempt to intimidate and isolate Japan’s new leader. Instead, it helped turn the Feb. 8 election into a referendum on national security.
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party won 316 seats in the 465-member chamber, and coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party added 36 for a total of 352. That gives Takaichi a degree of parliamentary control that can override the upper house in most cases and expedite major security legislation and budget changes.
Analysts told The Epoch Times that the victory gives Takaichi political cover to accelerate changes already underway: higher defense spending, longer-range weapons, tighter counterintelligence, and deeper U.S.–Japan operational integration. Those moves could reshape the Indo-Pacific security landscape, they said.
In Beijing’s worst-case reading, they said, it could also reopen politically sensitive debates over Japan’s nuclear posture and possible “nuclear sharing” arrangements with the United States—even if any actual deployment remains distant.
Cold War-Like Dynamic
After the victory, Takaichi struck a familiar tone, saying her government would pursue a “constructive and stable” relationship with China and remain open to dialogue.
Akio Yaita, a veteran Japanese journalist and director of the Indo-Pacific Strategy Think Tank, said he expects that Japan–China relations may “settle into a long-term Cold War-like state” of persistent distrust and strategic competition, but they are unlikely to deteriorate further.
“In fact, I think both sides—especially China—will look for a way to step back gracefully,” he said.
By Sean Tseng
