Manufacturing Surges in February, Tripling Growth Forecasts

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Manufacturing output surged in February, exceeding expectations and fueling optimism for Trumpโ€™s economic revival after years of industrial contraction.

Manufacturing output at U.S. factories surged in February, far exceeding expectations and reinforcing optimism about President Donald Trumpโ€™s promised manufacturing revival.

Factory output climbed 0.9 percent last month, triple the 0.3 percent growth forecast by economists polled by Reuters, following a 0.1 percent gain in January, the Federal Reserve reported on March 18.

On an annual basis, manufacturing output rose 0.7 percent, a sign that the sectorโ€”accounting for 10.3 percent of the U.S. economyโ€”is rebounding after more than two years of contraction.

The economy played an important role in Trumpโ€™s 2024 election victory, with voters backing his agenda to expand energy production and revive domestic manufacturing. Even before his inauguration in January, business optimism soared, driven by expectations that Trumpโ€™s policies would improve market conditions.

In Februaryโ€”Trumpโ€™s first full month in officeโ€”manufacturing growth accelerated significantly, data shows. Alongside the Federal Reserveโ€™s industrial output report, the latest data from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management painted a similar picture of a sector regaining momentum after a prolonged downturn.

Vice President JD Vance reinforced this optimism during a March 14 visit to a Michigan plastics manufacturing facility, where he declared that the โ€œgreat American comebackโ€ was already underway. At the same time, Vance urged patience for the recovery to fully materialize.

โ€œThe road ahead of us is long,โ€ he said. โ€œBut we are already, in just seven short weeks, starting to see early indications of the presidentโ€™s vision becoming our shared American reality.โ€

Vanceโ€™s remarks come at a time when consumer sentiment has slipped despite initial post-election euphoria. While many businesses anticipate growth, households remain wary of potential inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, driven in part by competing narratives on what impact the Trump administrationโ€™s trade policies will have.

Trump has embraced tariffs as part of his economic strategy, arguing that any potential short-term disruptions will in time give way to long-term benefits. When asked by reporters outside the White House on March 11 to comment on a recent bout of market turmoilโ€”and whether it points to a recessionโ€”Trump said: โ€œI donโ€™t see it at all. I think this countryโ€™s going to boom.

โ€œBut as I said, I can do it the easy way or the hard way. The hard way to do it is exactly what Iโ€™m doing, but the results are going to be 20 times greater.โ€

Byย Tom Ozimek

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