Revising emission regulations could sustain declining industry, but expansion unlikely in ’the golden age of natural gas.’
HOUSTON—Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin’s March 12 announcement that he will “reconsider” power plant regulations adopted under the Biden administration is welcome news to the nation’s $28 billion coal-producing industry, mine operators said March 13 at CERAWeek by S&P Global.
“Coal is not going away,” Alliance Resource Partners Senior Vice President for Sales and Marketing Timothy Whelan said. “I feel a lot better sitting here today than I did 12 months ago.”
Coal may not be going away, Robindale Energy President Bud Kroh said, but even with less restrictive emissions rules, the United States “won’t see more coal plants open” in coming years.
The “upside,” he said, is “I think every existing coal plant is going to stay open for the foreseeable future.”
Among the 31 actions Zeldin—who canceled a planned March 14 CERAWeek address—announced will be a review of the EPA’s April 2024 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) rule.
The rule requires fossil fuel-powered electricity plants to “capture 90 percent of carbon emissions” or shut down by 2032.
As a result, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 173 of nearly 390 coal-fired units in 33 states are set to close by 2030.
Of those remaining, 118 are at least 40 years old.
The rule was seen as a dagger into the heart of the nation’s coal industry, already in decline for more than two decades.
According to a March 11 EIA short-term outlook, coal produced 50 percent of the nation’s electricity in 2005, 27 percent in 2018, and about 15 percent in 2024, down from 16.2 percent the year before.
The EIA documents that, of 4.18 trillion kilowatts (KW) of electricity generated by U.S. utility-scale power plants in 2023, natural gas produced 43 percent, nuclear 18.6 percent, wind 10.2 percent, hydropower 5.6 percent, and solar 4 percent.
Renewable non-nuclear generation eclipsed coal in 2022, a trend EIA projects will continue.
But coal’s projected demise as an electricity generator may be premature as the nation grapples with an emergent need to dramatically, quickly expand electric capacity.
By John Haughey
