Russia’s Arrival In Dnipropetrovsk Puts Ukraine In A Dilemma

Contact Your Elected Officials

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Sunday that their forces had entered Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk Region, which Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed is part of Putin’s buffer zone plan. This was foreseen as early as late August once the Battle of Pokrovsk began but has been achieved even without capturing that strategic fortress town. Russian forces simply went around it after breaking through the southern Donbass front. This development puts Ukraine in a dilemma.

It’ll now have to simultaneously fortify the Dnipropetrovsk front together with the southern Kharkov and northern Zaporozhye ones in case Russia uses its new position to launch offensives into any of those three. This could put serious strain on the Ukrainian Armed Forces as they’re already struggling to prevent a major breakthrough in Sumy Region from Kursk. Coupled with depleting manpower and questions about continued US military-intelligence aid, this might be enough to collapse the frontlines.

To be sure, that scenario has been bandied about many times over the past more than 1,200 days, but it nowadays appears tantalizingly closer than ever. Observers also shouldn’t forget that Putin told Trump that he’ll respond to Ukraine’s strategic drone strikes earlier this month, which could combine with the abovementioned two factors to achieve this long-desired breakthrough. Of course, it might just be a symbolic demonstration of force, but it could also be something more significant as well.

Ukraine’s best chances of preventing this are for the US to either get Russia to agree to freeze the frontlines or to go on another offensive. The first possibility could be advanced by the carrot-and-stick approach of proposing a better resource-centric strategic partnership than has already been offered in exchange on pain of imposing crippling secondary sanctions on its energy clients (specifically China and India with likely waivers for the EU) and/or doubling down on military-intelligence aid if it still refuses.

As for the second, the 120,000 troops that Ukraine has assembled along the Belarusian border according to President Alexander Lukashenko last summer could either cross that frontier and/or one of Russia’s internationally recognized frontiers. Objectively speaking, however, both possibilities only stand a slim chance of success: Russia has made it clear that it must achieve more of its goals in the conflict before agreeing to any ceasefire while its success in pushing Ukraine out of Kursk bodes ill for other invasions.

The likelihood of Ukraine cutting its losses by agreeing to more of Russia’s demands for peace is nil. Therefore, it might inevitably opt, whether in lieu of the aforesaid scenarios or in parallel with one or both of them, to intensify its “unconventional operations” against Russia. This refers to assassinations, strategic drone strikes, and terrorism. All that will do, however, is provoke more (probably outsized) conventional retaliation from Russia and thus painfully delay Ukraine’s seemingly inevitable defeat.  

With an eye towards the endgame, it appears as though an inflection point is about to be reached or already has been in the sense of irreversibly shifting the military-strategic dynamics in Russia’s favor. It’s very difficult to imagine how Ukraine can extricate itself from this dilemma. All signs point to this being impossible, though the conflict has already surprised observers on both sides before, so it can’t be ruled out. Nevertheless, it’s a far-fetched scenario, and it’s more likely that Ukraine’s official defeat is nigh.

Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybkohttps://korybko.substack.com/
Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst with a PhD from MGIMO University.

Understanding the Trump/Musk Feud

The passion Trump and Musk exhibit over the OBBB is not contrived or for show. Each is addressing the problem from completely different approaches.

Who’s Your Mamdani?

Former state assemblyman Mamdani, a failed rapper, has repackaged himself as a "democrat socialist." In laymen's terms he's a Socialist. Way to go Democrats!

The Latest Trouble In Russian-Azerbaijani Relations Might Be Part Of A Turkish-US Powerplay

Could trouble in Russian-Azerbaijani relations be part of a Turkish-US powerplay, which Trump could have agreed to with Erdogan and Aliyev?

How The Big Beautiful Bill Will Keep Louisiana’s Energy Industry Strong

Renewable or not, our federal govt should not be rigging the deck against any energy sources, especially nuclear power that is both clean and consistent.

On Declaring War, Congress De Facto Amended the Constitution

Congress has de facto amended the Constitution by 55 years of refusing to debate matters of war and peace.

Senate Passes Megabill With Vance Casting Tie-Breaker

The U.S. Senate passed its version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act after a “vote-a-rama” that began the previous day and continued through the night.

Judge Rejects Apple’s Request to Dismiss Monopoly Lawsuit

A federal court rejected Apple’s motion to dismiss a Department of Justice (DOJ)  lawsuit accusing the company of monopoly and anticompetitive conduct.

RFK Jr. Says Officials ‘Revolutionizing the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program’

Federal officials are working on revamping the program providing compensation for people who suffer injuries from vaccines, Health Sec RFK Jr. said.

DOJ Sues LA Over Sanctuary City Policies: 4 Things to Know

DOJ filed a lawsuit against Los Angeles over what it said are “sanctuary city” policies that shield illegal immigrants from deportation efforts.

Investors Shrug Off Prospects of Higher Tariffs as US Stocks Post Record High

Wall Street shrugged off the prospects of higher U.S. tariff rates as stocks registered all-time highs to finish the raucous second quarter.

Federal Reserve ‘Should Be Ashamed’ for Not Lowering Interest Rates, Trump Says

President Donald Trump said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues “should be ashamed” for not lowering interest rates.

Trump Signs Executive Order to Lift Sanctions on Syria

President Trump signed an EO on June 30 to lift most sanctions on Syria, giving the Middle-Eastern country an opportunity to develop economically.

Canada-US Trade Talks Will End Until ‘Certain Taxes’ Are Dropped, Trump Stresses

Trade discussions between Canada and the United States will end “until such time as they drop certain taxes,” U.S. President Trump said in an interview.
spot_img

Related Articles