‘This is a pivotal moment for the petroleum market trend,’ says one market analyst.
Crude oil prices have retreated since President Donald Trump delayed a decision on helping Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
At a June 19 press briefing, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, reading a statement from the president, said a decision would be made within two weeks.
“Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place in the near future, I will make my decision of whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” Leavitt stated, quoting Trump.
Speaking to the media outside the White House, the president declined to provide details on his plans.
“I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” he said.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a U.S. benchmark, dipped about 0.2 percent to below $75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange during the June 20 trading session.
Brent crude, a global benchmark for oil prices, declined approximately 3 percent to below $77 per barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange.
Still, U.S. and Brent crude are poised for a weekly gain of around 2 percent. They had been in negative territory for much of 2025, but had since turned positive and are up 2.5 percent this year.
Natural gas prices dropped by more than 3 percent to close the trading week at around $3.85 per million British thermal units. But they will record a weekly gain of nearly 7 percent.
“This is a pivotal moment for the petroleum market trend,” Phil Flynn, an energy strategist at The PRICE Futures Group, said in a daily note.
“We continue to trade swing trades at daily levels, and hedge traders are anxious about potential supply disruptions that could lead to panic buying.”
In recent days, market watchers have presented various price forecasts.
Goldman Sachs estimates that an escalation in Israel–Iran hostilities could create a $10-a-barrel risk premium. Prices could top $90 if there is an Iranian supply disruption.
If the conflict in the Middle East eliminates 1.1 million barrels per day of crude exports from Tehran, oil prices could trade as much as 20 percent above pre-conflict levels, analysts at Citibank said in a note.
“Production elsewhere globally may have risen sufficiently to offset the disruption impact, particularly if the production disruption was expected,” Citi analysts stated.
The United States is producing close to 13.5 million barrels per day.
While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced it is increasing production, new data suggest output has fallen short of the cartel’s target.
OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, released earlier this month, confirmed that crude production increased by 180,000 barrels per day in May to 27 million, much lower than the plan of 310,000 barrels per day announced last month.
Barclays and JPMorgan Chase strategists, meanwhile, forecast that prices could surge above $100 a barrel in a worst-case scenario, primarily due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
By Andrew Moran
