Based on hopes of the Ukraine war ending – plus other factors – the major stock indexes are up an average of 2% in 1st half of August – normally a weak month.
Nothing much happened last Friday in Alaska, when Vladimir Putin and President Trump cut their summit short, but they called it a “good start.” Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, was furious for not being invited to Alaska. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy told Vice President J.D. Vance that a ceasefire must take place first before there are any territorial concessions. President Trump said he will not discuss changing any borders, but I suspect President Trump may agree to block Ukraine from joining NATO in exchange for a permanent ceasefire. Despite complaints emanating from Europe, the EU will likely reluctantly agree to most of the terms dictated by President Trump and Vladimir Putin.
It seems to me that Vladimir Putin suddenly wants to have a ceasefire since the U.S. is threatening new sanctions on Russia and its trading allies, like Brazil, China and India. So, President Trump is still using tariffs to conduct foreign policy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains a wildcard, but since Ukraine is conscripting men up to age 60, they are running out of troops and badly need a ceasefire.
Based on hopes of the Ukraine war ending – plus other positive factors – the major stock indexes are up an average of 2% in the first half of August – normally a weak month.
Here are the most important developments recently and what they mean:
– The leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Britain, Finland, the European Union and NATO all were at the White House on Monday to show support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Interestingly, Zelensky was very complimentary of President Trump, confirmed that he wanted to end the war, and even wore a new suit that President Trump complimented him on. The NATO allies agreed to provide Ukraine with security guarantees, so Zelensky can proceed to schedule a meeting with Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the war between Ukraine and Russia. Overall, the White House meeting could not have gone better, and President Trump seemed very pleased that progress was being made.
