National polls show U.S. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are relatively neck-and-neck as the Nov. 5 elections loom.
The national polling average by FiveThirtyEight currently shows Trump with 41.7 percent support compared to Biden’s 40.9 percent—a lead of 0.8 percent for the former president. The average was last updated on Saturday. Comparatively, the Real Clear Polling average has Trump and Biden tied at 46 each.
Trump faces serious criminal charges and his Manhattan hush money trial is creating uncomfortable headlines for his camp. The trial, however, seems likely to help him in the polls and not hurt him the way many Democrats are hoping.
In fact, a recent Ipsos poll showed that a full one-third of Republican voters were more likely to support Trump if he was convicted in the hush-money case.
Trump polls better on issues such as immigration, economy, jobs, unemployment, crime, and corruption, whereas Biden polls better on issues like political extremism and healthcare.
But with Trump’s lead narrowing in several key swing states, Trump will need to win over the non-aligned voters or the Republicans who are still undecided. The seven states considered critical battlegrounds for the 2024 presidential election include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Both Trump and Biden are expected to do a substantial portion of their campaigning and spending in these competitive states.
It is important to remember that presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College, which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes. A presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success. If Trump can retain his edge on the electoral college, this will give him a major boost and potentially propel him into the White House.
Trump will need to diffuse the abortion issue as well as demonstrate he is equal to or better than Biden at protecting American democracy. Certainly, Trump can use the current campus protests that are blatantly anti-Israel as a starting point for where democracy in America is going wrong. University campuses today are a cesspool of hate and hypocrisy, with faculty and students demonstrating serious anti-American attitudes and pro-Islam sentiments that are beyond frightening.
A recent article in Newsweek showed that Trump would be favored to defeat Biden in the popular vote as well as the Electoral College if the 2024 election were held today, according to recent polling averages.
While Biden has seen some improvement in recent national and state-level polls, overall he appears to be fighting an uphill battle against Trump.
While Trump can rely on some negative campaigning and highlighting Biden’s failures, his greatest success will derive from a positive campaign highlighting his own past successes when he was president and explaining how he will tackle the most pressing issues of today.
The polls clearly show that voters are disappointed in Biden and believe that Trump can do better. Trump just needs to echo this sentiment and present clear plans for a better future for all Americans.
