Zelensky’s warmongering grey cardinal Andrey Yermak, who formally serves as his Chief of Staff, submitted his resignation after his apartment was raided as part of the investigation into Ukraine’s $100 million energy graft scandal. Russian Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik believes that he was fired, however, to protect Zelensky as the walls close in on him amidst this investigation. Whatever the truth may be, Miroshnik might be onto something, which will be elaborated on throughout this analysis.
It was earlier assessed that “Ukraine’s Corruption Scandal Might Pave The Way For Peace If It Takes Yermak Down” since “his downfall could undo the already shaky alliance between the armed forces, the oligarchs, the secret police, and parliament that keeps Zelensky in power.” Zelensky held off on getting rid of him for that reason, which emboldened Yermak to declare on his behalf that Ukraine won’t cede any territory to Russia, thus spoiling one of the main proposals in the US’ draft peace framework.
Shortly thereafter, Yermak’s apartment was raided with the participation of the two US-funded entities leading this graft investigation, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO). Had Zelensky accepted the principles contained in the aforesaid framework, particularly the 26th one about how “all parties involved in this conflict will receive amnesty for their actions during the war”, Yermak might have been able to ride off into the sunset.
Instead, Yermak whispered in Zelensky’s ear to play tough with Trump and reject the US’ draft peace framework, after which the US let the anti-corruption bodies that it funds proceed with their investigation. Trump could have stopped it right then and there before it predictably took Yermak down had Zelensky at the very least publicly agreed to the draft’s concession for ceding Donbass. Yermak’s career and his entire legacy in Ukrainians’ eyes were therefore destroyed by his warmongering.
Next up might come Zelensky’s if he doesn’t comply with Trump’s demands. Without his grey cardinal maintaining the already shaky alliance that keeps him in power, he’s now more politically vulnerable than ever, the obvious realization of which could see some of his allies make power moves against him in the coming future. For instance, US-encouraged defections from the ruling party could lead to him losing control of the Rada, which might be leveraged by the US to remove him if he remains obstinate to peace.
In parallel, the US might threaten the corrupt oligarchs that they’ll be caught in the dragnet too unless they get their parliamentary proxies to go along with the rolling regime change against Zelensky, which could also see the US ordering the secret police to allow opposition protests against Zelensky. The armed forces’ role would be limited to disobeying Zelensky if he orders them to break up these protests, and as a reward, their beloved Valery Zaluzhny could replace Zelensky on the throne when all is said and done.
Yermak’s resignation/firing set this scenario sequence into motion, but it could be maximally catalyzed by NABU-SAPO formally making it known that Zelensky is under investigation, which the US might authorize it to do (including through a raid) if he doesn’t soon comply with Trump’s demands. In retrospect, Zelensky’s efforts over the summer to subordinate NABU-SAPO were aimed at averting this, but they failed and Trump is now using these anti-corruption bodies to finally coerce him into peace.
