Ukraine’s Much-Hyped Counteroffensive Meets Grim Reality

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Each day, Ukrainian soldiers trudge over a morass of dried mud. They stop frequently, staying low to the ground. For much of the day, they hunker in ditches and dig small trenches while they wait for their Soviet-era mine-clearing vehicles to complete their laborious task.

They know that a Russian unit is nearby. Perhaps just behind the tree line.

Russia has amassed 100,000 troops and more than 500 battle tanks just east of here, past Bakhmut. None of the soldiers know where those Russian troops will deploy, but everyone knows that they will deploy. Maybe they already have. A day without contact is exceedingly rare.

They can only hope that the unit doesn’t attack again. They have lost men already and can’t afford to lose their mine-clearing capability.

If these Ukrainians are lucky, they’ll advance the length of two football fields today.

The Trident

It’s this way along most of the front lines, which now sprawl more than 600 miles, bisecting the nation.

Just four months into Ukraine’s counteroffensive, the fighting is a meat grinder in which gains are measured in feet and never miles. Still, Ukraine pushes on, advancing slowly and relentlessly south and east into occupied territory.

It’s making three key thrusts against the Russians, like points on the trident that defines Ukraine’s coat of arms.

In the south, Ukrainian forces are staging amphibious assaults across the Dnipro River near Kherson. Some of their greatest gains have been made along this stretch of river and, if they can push further, they may secure a path to occupied Crimea by the end of next year.

In the east, they march around the ruin of fallen Bakhmut and work to shore up defenses against an always-growing mass of Russian reserves.

Between these two points—at the tip of the trident—is key.

It’s here that Ukrainian forces pushed through Russia’s first and strongest line of fortifications and liberated the town of Robotyne in early September.

Some among Ukraine’s military leadership believe that Ukraine has now broken through the most difficult of Russia’s defense networks in southern Ukraine.

By Andrew Thornebrook

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