Market watchers say the Fed could keep lowering interest rates amid cooling inflation and weakening employment conditions.
The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits declined for the week ending Dec. 13, signaling employment conditions are broadly stable.
Initial jobless claims declined by 13,000 to 224,000, according to new Department of Labor data. The previous week’s claims were revised up from 236,000 to 237,000.
Economists had projected a reading of 225,000.
The four-week average, which strips out week-to-week volatility, was little changed at 217,500.
An initial claims program for federal workers surged by 448, to 1,091. Market watchers have been paying closer attention to this metric to determine whether the current administration’s policies are affecting government payrolls.
Continuing jobless claims—a metric that measures the number of out-of-work individuals currently receiving unemployment benefits—increased to 1.897 million, from a downwardly adjusted 1.83 million.
Economists also track this measure to gauge how hard it is for unemployed workers to find jobs.
As more government economic data trickle in, the numbers have painted a mixed picture of the national labor market.
The U.S. economy added 64,000 new jobs in November, following a decline of 105,000 in October. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.6 percent from 4.4 percent.
Demand for labor has stalled, with job openings little changed in October at 7.67 million. Job quits, a key metric for workers’ confidence in the labor market, declined to a more than five-year low of 2.941 million.
Private-sector payrolls could be rebounding as companies added an average of 16,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending Nov. 29, according to ADP Research.
“The jobs data certainly may be muddied since there was never a clear picture for when the government was shut down and we were not getting this data, and that this data will be mixed in for those prior months,” Mahoney Asset Management CEO Ken Mahoney told The Epoch Times in an emailed note.
The employment data for November may need to have an “asterisk attached to it,” Laura Ullrich, director of Economic Research in North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a Dec. 16 note.
A concerning trend, Ullrich notes, is that employment gains have been highly concentrated this year, led by health services and the private education sector.
“Put another way, without this sector, the overall labor market would have actually lost 131,000 jobs so far in 2025,” Ullrich said. “Needless to say, this limited job growth is very problematic, especially for workers in other sectors who don’t want or are not qualified for these jobs.”
By Andrew Moran
