China, facing political infighting and an ailing economy, risks emerging as America’s top threat if the Ukraine war ends. Can it withstand the pressure?
If President Donald Trump can negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, communist China could become the next target of the United States, analysts say.
During a phone call on Feb. 24, Chinese leader Xi Jinping reaffirmed the “no limit” partnership he declared three years ago with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In a show of unity, Xi told Putin that their nations are “good neighbors” and “true friends who have been through thick and thin together,” according to Beijing’s readout.
Analysts said the warm sentiments expressed as the war in Ukraine marks its third year reflect the Chinese regime’s serious concerns.
“Xi Jinping’s greatest fear is that Putin might lean towards Trump” or even facilitate U.S. efforts to contain his regime, Cai Shenkun, an independent Chinese current affairs commentator, told The Epoch Times.
According to Cai, the alliance between the two autocracies is not as solid as it appears. He said that the war in Ukraine has acted as a catalyst, forging a closer bond between Beijing and Moscow and their economies. Once a cease-fire is reached, however, some longstanding friction points in their partnership, such as territorial disputes along their shared border, may resurface.
Additionally, Beijing’s support of Moscow’s war effort has strained its ties with Washington and Brussels, he said.
U.S. officials have repeatedly criticized China for helping Russia to rebuild its defense-industrial complex through the export of goods that can be used for both civilian and military purposes, thus providing Moscow an economic lifeline amid Western sanctions.
Meanwhile, European leaders, including the NATO secretary-general, are reconsidering their reliance on authoritarian regimes, especially in light of the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.
“In the past, we made the mistake of becoming dependent on Russian oil and gas. We must not repeat that mistake with China: Depending on its money, its raw materials, and its technologies,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at an event in April 2024. “Dependencies make us vulnerable.”
Cai said that as global distrust toward communist China rises, the regime could find itself sidelined once the conflict in Ukraine ends and Putin no longer needs Xi’s support.
“Neither Ukraine nor Russia will be grateful to China [for the war]. Europe certainly won’t either,” Cai said. “Xi was left with little choice but to place his bets on Putin.”
By Dorothy Li
