Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping may now feel that his only window to conquer Taiwan and remain in office lies in defying overwhelming odds and attempting the conquest before the U.S. presidential election in November.
Many of his bitter opponents in the CCP may now, reluctantly, agree with him.
That logic could be understood by China watchers even with little understanding of how Xi functions. The buildup of factors arguing against a delay in the attack seems overwhelming. Taiwan’s armed forces are improving daily, and its allies are firming up their resolve and capabilities to resist a Beijing war against Taiwan.
The longer Xi delays conquering Taiwan, the more difficult it becomes, and his domestic situation becomes more precarious as his economy collapses. But most importantly, the U.S. election on Nov. 5 could well bring back Donald Trump as president, a committed rival of communist China.
Taiwan’s inauguration of a new president, William Lai (Lai Ching-te), on May 20 was meant to be another deadline by which Xi would react to punish the Taiwanese voters for electing a president who was committed to resisting the country’s incorporation into mainland China. Indeed, the CCP has been stepping up military provocations against the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan’s official name) since the election.
However, a military invasion of the ROC by the Chinese regime remains an extremely high-risk option. For Xi to persist in considering it as his only way to retain power reflects the fact that he has consolidated strategic decision-making into his own hands since eliminating the collective leadership approach in the CCP that had prevailed from the death of Mao Zedong in 1974 until arguably, 2022.
There is no doubt that Taiwan, Japan, the United States, India, and other states concerned about the possible CCP action must prepare to face and over-match Chinese military capabilities at any time, and there is little doubt that they could do this. So there are seemingly overwhelming reasons for Beijing to abandon its goal of absorbing Taiwan.
