Our community is verbally attacking folks who are choosing not to wear masks and/or to refuse to take a virus vaccine.
This should not be happening. Why? Lets do some math.
The best bet is that Placer County’s 2021 death total from the virus will end up at ~600 people. This will equal ~19% of the ~3,000+/- people that pass on each year.
My bet is that other causes of death will hold constant- so we might see a 10% increase in our average death rate from ~3,000 to ~3,300. I am making that assumption after (a) checking the last few years of the state’s population data that shows that Placer county’s population has hovered around 390K and (b) and comparing that number with CA State ‘total death by cause’ data for 2018 and 2019 (urls for these reports are below). Net comment: The increase in deaths from the virus is very low.
These numbers cannot be construed to be considered a pandemic.
These numbers cannot be considered a significant increase in our risk to die- there are 390,000 folks in the community.
To contextualize my comment, remember that if 300 more people pass on this year- while it is sad- it represents a ~10% gain in total deaths (year over year). More importantly – even if the risk of death from the virus was spread equally across all groups (age, health challenges, etc.) your chance of being part of the increase of deaths caused by the virus is .000769. (300/390,000)
Based on the 7’s position in .000769 – your risk increases by seven ten thousandths of a chance to die from the virus.
(I think that is right – if I am incorrect I would be thankful if someone firmly- but gently- correct me)
At the risk of over communicating- a main point of my line of reasoning is NOT that deaths are ok.
My point is that we are not seeing a real rise in the actual deaths in Placer County.
Given our current population, our community’s average age- which is bit older than most communities (with several Sun City style developments – we are a retirement county) we are not seeing a real increase in total deaths.
However, media is adverting to us that we are at a considerably increased risk to die from the virus.
In an effort to harden my point about media advertising fear, its important to note that NO information on prior years’ cause of death data can be found on Placer County’s Covid dashboard website (link also below). Also, sadly, I could not find CA’s 2020 report sharing causes of death. We don’t have easy access to 2020 data (virus year one). This keeps our focus on total deaths- not the change in the risk of death.
So- why am I up late- wearing a tinfoil hat -and doing virus math on Facebook?
Last night I attended Rocklin Unified School District’s Board meeting. I was very angry to hear that Boardmember Tiffany Saathoff has been getting attacked as ‘a bad person’ for not wearing a mask.
Based on the above data, I think attacking anyone over mask wearing or vaccine taking is silly.
While you can choose to disagree with me, call me mean, etc. – IF you look at the data (above) and still think we need to make a vaccine mandatory, most folks should call you silly.
However, the math I shared above is just one of the issues that we all need to understand and I don’t think you can disagree with me on these next points.
The real moral issue that our community has to face is the impact that the vaccine mandate will cause ‘other’ people in our community. Right now, Kaiser, Sutter and other work places will, in 30 days +/-, start firing people who won’t take a vaccine. I don’t know how many people are at risk at Kaiser or Sutter BUT the Rocklin Unified School District has ~350 teachers that are at risk. These ‘others’ will lose their jobs and fairly quickly (months) lose the items that allow them to live and provide for their children. It will be a poor Thanksgiving and a terrible Christmas for these ‘others’.
I think we need to let that sink in.
Kaiser hospitals and Sutter hospitals, the Rocklin Unified School District – and other large employers in Placer County, are preparing to fire folks who will not take a vaccine. These ‘others’ will be fired just before Christmas- the worst time of year to look for a job. These ‘others’ will be fired just before Christmas – which is arguably the most important time of year to support your family. This is outrageous given the data I shared.
However- there are two more layers to this issue which in my opinion makes it the most important issue that we as a community will deal with in 2021.
Right now of the 4 vaccines that the media tells us should be available to our community – only 3 of them are actually available in Placer County. These 3 have been created under the FDA’s Emergency Use Authorization Act, which provides vaccine manufacturers total immunity from product liability.
The fourth vaccine, Pfizer’s Comirnaty, which was not released via the Emergency Use Authorization Act does not seem to be available to our community at this time.
How do I know Comirnaty is not available in our community? I called Kaiser and Pfizer and asked them. This is what they shared:
I called Kaiser’s member services and asked if Comirnaty was available to Kaiser’s customers. Kaiser’s member services told me that Pfizer’s current vaccine, which Kaiser is administering this week, is “the same as Comirnaty” and that I “should not be concerned that it was not named Comirnaty”.
When I called Pfizer to confirm that Comirnaty was available to Kaiser customers in the Northern California area I was told that they “did not know when it would be available to Kaiser customers”.
Based on my calls, it would seem that everyone that has taken a vaccine at this point received a vaccine that was created by the Emergency Use Authorization Act process. Also – it appears that there is no plan to make Comirnaty available to those folks that are vaccine hesitant before they are required to be vaccinated so they can keep their jobs. This is not acceptable.
The CEO’s of Kaiser and Sutter, the Placer County Supervisors and the leaders of any entity that is planning on ‘othering’ someone OWES our community transparency concerning which covid vaccines they are mandating.
While I don’t think my math or data is wrong- I have to admit that I am up, wearing a tin foil hat, worrying about ‘others’. So I would ask that if my information is wrong please let me know.
HOWEVER, before a group mandates any medical procedure – or allows a mandate to proceed against folks in our community – our leaders need to talk with us. Not talk at us- but talk with us AND bring data.
In God I trust. Everyone else brings data.
Population: Placer County; URL; https://datausa.io/profile/
CA: Cause of death totals; Placer County; URL;
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CHSI/CDPH%20Document%20Library/ICS_PLACER2019.pdf
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CHSI/CDPH%20Document%20Library/CHSP-PLACER.pdf
By Kevin Cooper
