A study found jobs with a ‘high risk of AI substitution,’ such as economists and graphic designers, declined by 4 percent.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has begun shifting American workers away from occupations most vulnerable to automation, but its overall effect on U.S. employment and wages still remains “muted,” according to a European Central Bank study released on Monday.
U.S. companies have been investing heavily in AI in recent years amid predictions that humans will be replaced at increasing rates.
According to the European Central Bank (ECB) Economic Bulletin article, certain workers, especially junior staff in highly exposed sectors, are starting to become more vulnerable to being replaced by AI.
“All else being equal, between 2019 and 2025 jobs with a high substitution risk grew by around 15 percentage points less than jobs with a low substitution risk,” the report reads.
The ECB said that the U.S. economy has started to adjust to AI, and such effects are likely to have become visible earlier than in other major economies, given that it is home to some of the most advanced early-adopting companies and has a relatively flexible labor market.
Employment in jobs with a high risk of AI substitution, such as economists and graphic designers, declined on average by more than 4 percent between 2019 and 2025.
Employment in jobs with a low risk of AI substitution, like electricians or high school teachers, increased by 13 percent over the same period.
“The share of low-risk jobs in total US employment has increased from 23 percent to 25 percent, while the share of high-risk jobs has dropped from 35 percent to 33 percent,” the report reads.
“While AI’s potential to disrupt job markets could be significant, its effects on aggregate employment appear to be muted so far.”
The study also found that the relative impact of AI on job growth has “not yet translated into significant differences in wage growth.”
“Over time, as the labour market continues to adjust and AI tools become more generative, income effects may be more pronounced,” it reads.
According to a Jan. 19 survey report from professional services company PwC, most CEOs worldwide have not yet seen financial returns from their organizations’ investments in artificial intelligence.
By Owen Evans
