Recent shifts in political race ratings from the Cook Political Report and others fuel speculation that the House will flip blue while the Senate will turn red.
A year out from the 2024 general election, speculation continues to swirl around the prospect for a reversal on Capitol Hill—the Senate flipping red and the House turning blue—though a number of wild cards suggest everything remains in play.
The 2024 U.S. elections are scheduled for Nov. 5 of next year, when Americans will go to the polls to elect a president and vice president, all 435 seats in the House up for grabs, and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate contested.
The case for the 2024 election resulting in a split congressional decision—where Republicans gain control of the Senate but lose the House—has just gotten a boost from the latest analysis by the Cook Political Report (CPR).
Democrats seem to have a “strong” chance at retaking the five seats they need to wrest back control of the House, per the report.
Partly it’s because of the odds: there are 18 vulnerable Republicans in Biden 2020 districts, compared to five vulnerable Democrats in Trump districts.
Another part of the CPR calculus that raised Democrat chances to flip the House in their favor is the recent speakership fracas.
Speakership in Focus
In the analysis, CPR’s David Wasserman argued that the commotion around the ouster of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and the election of the current House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has “supercharged” House Democrats’ confidence that they can flip the five seats they need to retake the lower chamber.
Their plan, according to Mr. Wasserman, is to persuade “swing voters that ‘dysfunctional’ Republicans can’t be trusted with the keys to power.”
That may be a tall order, especially if memories fade about the speakership drama and if the current House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) proves himself to be a competent and stable leader, able to navigate the maze of partisan politics, avoid pitfalls, and get things done.
By Tom Ozimek
