This dossier was provided to us by a credible expert source and was created by a small group of technical experts in the fields of mathematics, political science, and forensic analysis, all who are well-versed in election statistics and electoral anomalies.
The source provided this document and demonstrated the credibility of the authors who are presenting here their statistical findings on the first round of the Brazilian elections (held Sunday October 2nd).
The source group applied Benford’s Law, a highly recognized statistical formula, to analyze publicly available data provided by the Brazilian Electoral Court (TSE). The formula showed inconsistencies in voting tabulation in several regions across the country.
The links to the TSE’s publicly available data is in the document, and other experts are invited to conduct the same Benford’s Law test on the data. The voting tabulation graphs are also available — showing the region, the candidate, and the digit analyzed. Several charts show Benford’s Law curve in a certain format, while the actual curve of the vote tabulation veers completely off from it. This is what points to manipulation according to the expert source.
Benford’s Law never definitively proves fraud in and of itself. It is a methodology that is used to detect anomalies in large datasets, and thus help an auditor focus his audit on the clusters of data that present the anomalies. It serves as a “red flag” that, according to our source, should catalyze an audit review of the data in a system where auditors operate in good faith.
According to the source: the data patterns outlined in the dossier contain many strong anomalies that are glaring red flags. This is especially the case in the northeastern region of the country.