Chart of the Day: 2022 Midterms Election Projections 3 Weeks Before Election Day

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America is about three weeks before the all import 2022 midterms elections. With Democrats holding the Executive branch, the Senate, and the House, they have had free reign to push through their agenda for the past two years. This may be coming to an end in a Red Wave (i.e., Republican come back).

It is useful to see where we are at on whether the Red Wave is coming and understand the trends to see just how strong it will be. First, let’s take a look at the current projections for the Senate. See below the RCP (Real Clear Politics) projections for the Senate.

Battle For Seante - RCP Projections

The Senate is leaning Republican, though many races are very close and could move over the next three weeks. Then let’s turn our focus on the House. See below the RCP (Real Clear Politics) projections for the House.

The House has been polling strongly for the Republicans and looks to be a sure win if all goes well. However, never think anything is a sure win – anything can happen at the last minute. Having a strong win for the Republicans will ensure America gets a strong message concerning the direction of the country.

What is interesting is to see the trend data. Not so much in the House races, but in the Senate races. A month ago, it had flipped and was learning Democrat. Now it has marginally flipped back to leaning Republican. See the trend data from the Predictit odds maker (which mirrors polling data) below on which party will control the Senate and House.

Most political analysts believe that the brief Democrat rise was due to initial support for the Ukraine conflict efforts of the Biden administration and recent SCOTUS abortion rulings (i.e., backtracking on Roe vs. Wade) that caused a temporary boost in Democrat polling. But like many issues, this has waned. However, more recent issues of economy, inflation, crime, and immigration have superseded and have tilted better recent polling for the Republicans.

One wonders if Nancy Pelosi is still predicting a strong win for Democrats. “I believe that we will hold the House, and we will hold the House by winning more seats,” Pelosi told Colbert on October 3 to whoops and applause. See the video below.

It is interesting to see even mainstream media is seeing the above reality as well. See below NBC’s election analyst Steve Kornacki reviews the president’s job approval rating, generic polls for the House, and some Senate polls in front of the 2022 midterm election. Learn more here.

In short, recent polling is good news for Republicans, though the Senate is statistically still up for grabs. However, it is paramount that conservatives do not sit back – get out and vote!

All this being said, Democrats obviously know this data as well, and if all goes well, the Red Wave will be like a tsunami coming into shore. What things would Democrats be willing to do to change this narrative? This should concern us all.

See more Chart of the Day posts.

By Tom Williams

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