Chart of the Day: Midterms 2022 Election Day Warning

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CNN – President Joe Biden recently delivered a stark warning to Americans that the future of the nation’s democracy could rest on next week’s midterm elections, an urgent appeal coming six days before final ballots are cast in a contest the president framed in nearly existential terms.

“We can’t take democracy for granted any longer,” the president said from Union Station in Washington, blocks from the US Capitol where a mob attempted to interrupt the certification of the 2020 election.

It was a sharp message to Americans considering sitting out next week’s congressional elections that the very future of the country was at stake. Biden suggested the preponderance of candidates for office at every level of government who have denied the results of the last presidential contest was a red-flashing warning signal for the country.

“As I stand here today, there are candidates running for every level of office in America – for governor, for Congress, for attorney general, for secretary of state who won’t commit to accepting the results of the elections they’re in,” Biden said. “That is the path to chaos in America. It’s unprecedented. It’s unlawful. And it is un-American.”

Biden’s speech placed blame for the dire national situation squarely at the feet of his predecessor, Donald Trump, accusing the former president of cultivating a lie that has metastasized into a web of conspiracies that has already resulted in targeted violence. See his comments below in Biden’s speech. (Top of Article)

Many believe that this speech was made to sway voters to vote Democrat. However, most people’s minds have been made up on this subject – see recent polling here. But perhaps there is something more sinister in what Biden was trying to say.

The Democrats (and their mainstream media propagandists) are building and re-enforcing the narrative that Republicans (specifically MAGA Republicans) falsely don’t accept what Democrats say are free and fair elections. Alternatively, others would say that there are significant election integrity issues that are not being addressed and are skewing the outcome of the electoral process.

This sets up a situation where if major election integrity issues should arise, and Republicans dispute the 2022 midterm election results and demand investigations – no one will believe nor act. One can hear it now, “MAGA” Republicans are once again denying the outcome of elections and dismiss any allegations. In fact, Democrats now can commit voter fraud at will, with no one willing to dispute for fear of being labeled far right-wing extremists that are a threat to “democracy.”

So, could we see a repeat of the 2020 election?

The Census Bureau’s estimates confirm the general perception that 2020 voter turnout was very high, at 66.8%. This was the biggest turnout in a presidential election since 1992 (67.7%) and more than 5 points higher than the 2016 election. In the 2016 elections, there were about 136,669,276 voters, and in 2020 there were about 159,690,457 voters – a whopping increase of about 17% of voters or an additional 23 million voters. The increase in voters came about largely due to the then Covid restrictions and its subsequent mail-in voting process, which was part of the voter fraud contention. See this in the chart below and learn more here and here.

Midterm elections have had historically lower turnouts than presidential elections. See the historical trends in the chart below and learn more here.

The 2018 midterms, due to the energy generated from the Trump presidency, was a recent record voter turnout at 49%. With many of the Covid mail-in processes still in place, how will the voter turnout look for 2022? It is too early to tell, but below is some anecdotal evidence indicating that depending on the close important races, the 2022 midterm elections could even beat the 2018 record voter turnout pace.

  • Record Georgia midterm early voting continues through day seventeen – see here.
  • Voters stick to pandemic-era habits as early voter turnout surges – see here.
  • North Carolina early voting is beating the 2018 midterms – see here.
  • Voter turnout doubles so far as Madison County, Tennessee, early voting ends soon for midterms – see here.
  • Early voter turnout in Virginia is “relatively strong” – see here.
  • More young voters headed to Pennsylvania polls early in 2022 than in 2018 – see here.
  • Midterm turnout reached a 40-year high in 2018 at 49% of the total voting-age population. Early voting totals suggest that number could be even higher in 2022 – see here.
  • The 2022 elections are shaping up to be on par with a presidential race, as partisan anger is driving high turnout amid concerns the soul of the nation is on the line for the next two years – see here.

CNN is reporting that early voting has been up since the 2018 midterms across the country and in four of the six key states to watch for the 2022 midterms. See this in the chart below and learn more here.

So once again, we could be looking at very different election dynamics if this anecdotal evidence turns out to be true. Election integrity issues with this amount of increased voting are bound to occur – especially in the mail-in and absentee ballots. If there is alleged voter ballot box stuffing of a significant amount in the contested areas, they would not show up in polling – as a fictitious voter would not be a “likely” voter in the polling.

So again, one has to ask, could we see a repeat of the 2020 election?

Within this context, what could play out? To be clear, this is purely hypothetical. We mention this because it has probably happened before, and we must prepare ourselves accordingly, remain vigilant and watch for all possibilities. The following are hypothetical events that could unfold.

  1. With extremely heavy voter turnout, many races will be too close to call and won’t be called on election night due to vote counting not being complete. We saw this in 2020. In many races, Republicans will be ahead, but these leads could evaporate over time as new ballots are “found” and disputed.
  2. The polls of a big Red Wave become a myth because the polls assumed “likely voters,” and many of the mail-in ballots had not been understood and/or not even real.
  3. With the idea that many Republicans feel that they now have been fooled twice, once in 2020 and again in 2022, protests erupt. Most protests are peaceful, and a small percentage of misguided folks may not be and/or be infiltrated by outside agitators – similar to January 6th. The small non-peaceful protest gets amplified on mainstream and social media.
  4. As the Biden folks and many mainstream media narratives have already cued up, the radical right extremists are a “threat to democracy.” Hence, Biden declares a national emergency and begins to round up all election protesters – even those who even give mild support to the idea. This would usher in a dark dystopian future for America. Where it goes from here is anyone’s guess.

Does this sound far-fetched? Well, this is much like what has happened already – all well-planned political psyop events. Perhaps January 6th was a mere forerunner of what could happen after the 2022 midterms. Again, this is purely hypothetical. But the country is extremely divided. Don’t think dirty politics and political psyops can’t happen.

Let’s stay hopeful that this does not happen, and we can enjoy the predicted Red Wave to re-right the country toward better times.

In the meantime, keep your eyes wide open.

By Tom Williams

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