Prior to the election, I announced a test of whether Dominion machines correlate to the 2022 results. This test consisted of taking the Real Clear Average polls prior the election and comparing them to actual results, using the percentage of Dominion machine usage in a given state as a predictor.
The 2022 results were the Dominion effect was 4.06% with a one-sided p-value just under 10%
Ten days ago I wrote what type of statistical tests I would do regarding Dominion Election Machines.
I warned that all eyes were on the Arizona governor’s race, where the Republican was ahead (slightly), the Democrat candidate was in charge of her own certification process, and Maricopa County uses Dominion machines–which would have been targeted for cancellation if the Republican won.
Unfortunately, the machine processes failed in some areas, at some points in time, in Maricopa County. I do not know which type of machines (printer vs. tabulator) or which brand of machines caused this issue. I read various “fact checks” that try to blame the printing companies not the tabulators, but the fact of the matter is, the official statement came from video from Maricopa County itself via twitter, which said “20% of the locations have an issue with the tabulators”. Watch the video for yourself, if it is still available. (Here is an article about the person on the right in the video.) I have no knowledge of what machines caused this issue.
So…. where does that leave us?
Unfortunately, it means that a large number of individuals in our society will not trust the outcome of this Arizona election, independently of any statistics I am about to produce.
Having said that, here are some stats to consider.
By Ben Turner