Analysts say freight activity tends to turn ahead of broader industrial indicators, as manufacturers move inputs and finished goods before investment and hiring
U.S. freight markets are showing signs of a shift toward domestically driven industrial activity, with truckload volumes rising sharply in the Midwest even as import-related flows remain subdued, according to new data and industry commentary.
Truckload volumes are up about 8 percent year over year, driven by increased activity in traditional industrial corridors tied to autos and heavy machinery, FreightWaves founder and CEO Craig Fuller said in a Feb. 9 video.
By contrast, volumes tied to imports and port-adjacent distribution hubs have declined, with activity in Southern California’s Inland Empire down roughly 17 percent.
Describing the 8 percent annual jump in truckload volumes as a “significant” development, Fuller noted that import hubs were largely absent from the rally, with freight growth concentrated instead in domestic industrial corridors.
“It’s not what you would expect it to be,” he said.
“Imports are actually not really participating in this volume surge. It’s happening in the Rust Belt, the traditional industrial Midwest, which is really focused on auto and heavy machinery, is where we’re seeing it. We’re not seeing it the ports.”
The divergence marks a break from the import-led freight cycles that have dominated much of the past decade, including during the pandemic-era surge in goods demand.
Fuller said the current pattern suggests domestic supply chains are becoming more active, with freight growth concentrated in the middle and last mile rather than in containerized imports.
“Last year, the auto market was actually quite weak. Industrial machinery was quite weak. We’re starting to see that come back,” Fuller said, singling out places such as Columbus, Ohio; Indianapolis; Detroit; Kansas City; and Cleveland, which he said are outperforming other parts of the country significantly on a year-over-year basis.
“They’re gaining significant market share, and that tells me that this particular rally is all about the re-industrialization that Donald Trump’s policies have been trying to pursue.”
President Donald Trump has been pursuing policies, including tariffs, that seek to re-shore supply chains and revive America’s depleted industrial base.
By Tom Ozimek
