Five states will have competitive primary elections, three of which are safe seats for either party. Races in Georgia and Michigan could determine the majority.
WASHINGTON—After just five months of the 119th Congress, elections to the 120th Congress to be held in 2026 are on the horizon. Already, several longtime U.S. senators have announced their retirement at the end of this Congress, prompting several contenders to announce their candidacies.
The primary elections for Senate seats—the first step in the process, where parties will determine their nominees for the general election—are expected to be hotly contested. Given that many of the states involved are safely governed by one party, i.e., “red” or “blue” states, as opposed to battlegrounds, a victory in the primary entails a likely victory in the general election and the possibility of long service in the Senate.
Kentucky’s Republican Primary
One of the longest-serving members of the Senate, Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), is retiring. McConnell was first elected to the Senate in 1984, and was elected as the Leader of the Senate Republican Conference in 2007. He assumed the office of Senate Majority Leader in 2015, after Republicans won a majority in the 2014 midterms, and held that role for the entirety of President Donald Trump’s first term.
McConnell’s retirement, long anticipated, opens up a Senate seat in a safely Republican state. The likelihood of a GOP victory is compounded by the decision of Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) to not run in the Senate election, ahead of a possible presidential campaign in 2028.
Currently, former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) is running in the primary. Cameron is a McConnell protégé, having run in the 2023 gubernatorial election against Beshear with McConnell’s endorsement. Against him is Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.).
Barr has picked up the endorsements of three of his House colleagues: Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), former Conference Chair and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), and Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Ky.).
In safely Republican states, the endorsement of Trump is often the decisive factor in the primary contest. Trump endorsed Cameron’s gubernatorial run in 2023 but has not announced his choice in the Senate race.
A recent poll shows Cameron leading the primary race with 44 percent support.
By Arjun Singh
