Global growth is now expected to hit just 2.8 percent in 2025, with trade disruptions and policy shifts dragging most countries’ outlooks down.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8 percent, down from 3.3 percent in its January estimate, pointing to evolving trade dynamics, rising policy uncertainty, and cooling momentum across several economies.
In its April 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF said most countries are expected to grow at a slightly slower pace than previously projected. While it described the current environment as “a critical juncture” for the global economy, the IMF emphasized that proactive policy coordination could mitigate downside risks.
The updated forecast accounts for trade developments announced through early April, including broad-based U.S. tariffs that have raised effective tariff rates to levels not seen in decades. The IMF said policy responses from other major economies have added to what it characterizes as elevated uncertainty—but stopped short of predicting a global recession.
“Despite the slowdown, global growth remains well above recession levels,” wrote Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor and director of research at IMF. “Global inflation is revised up by about 0.1 percentage point for each year, yet the disinflation momentum continues.”
In this new reference scenario, global growth is projected at 2.8 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026—a combined 0.8 percentage point cut from January’s projections. Global trade growth was revised down by 1.5 percentage points, to just 1.7 percent, less than half the pace seen in 2024.
Inflation is also expected to decline more slowly than anticipated, with global headline inflation now projected at 4.3 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026, driven by higher costs associated with tariffs and continued supply disruptions.
The U.S. growth forecast was lowered by 0.9 percentage points to 1.8 percent in 2025, with nearly half of that drop directly attributed to the tariffs imposed since February. Growth is expected to ease further to 1.7 percent in 2026.
At the same time, the IMF raised its U.S. inflation forecast by 1 percentage point, projecting 3 percent inflation in 2025, up from 2 percent in January.
By Chase Smith
