There’s a lot of speculation that a Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, if that indeed happens, would be a boost for Democrats in this November’s midterm elections. There seems no doubt the decision will motivate some part of the Democratic base. But the question is: Who? How many? And how important would they be to the election results?
Polling shows that abortion is not at the highest level of voter concerns, even after the unprecedented leak of a draft decision that would end Roe. Politico conducted a rush poll after the leak, and it did not find an electorate obsessed with abortion.
The question Politico asked was: “Thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress?” The pollsters gave respondents seven choices: 1) economic issues, such as taxes, wages, and jobs; 2) security issues, such as terrorism, foreign policy, and the border; 3) healthcare issues, such as Obamacare and Medicaid; 4) seniors issues, such as Medicare and Social Security; 5) women’s issues, such as birth control, abortion, and equal pay; 6) education issues, such as school standards, class sizes, and school choice; and 7) energy issues, such as carbon emissions, renewables, and the cost of electricity and gasoline.
Women’s issues, including abortion, ranked fifth out of seven. The most important, of course, was economic issues, named by 41% of registered voters. Next was security issues, with 16%. Then came seniors issues, with 10%, and healthcare issues, with 9%. And then came women’s issues, including abortion, at 8%.
There was a gender gap, of course. Just 4% of men named women’s issues as most important, while 11% of women did — but remember, as far as abortion is concerned, that might include pro-lifers as well as pro-choicers. Among Democratic women, all pro-choice, the number rose to 18%, or nearly one in five. So perhaps a bit less than one-fifth of the female half of the Democratic electorate might be especially motivated by abortion rights come November.
By Byron York
