Taiwanese defense analysts have told The Epoch Times, following the release of a Defence Ministry report on China’s potential strategy to turn a military drill in the Taiwan Strait into a surprise attack, that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) doesn’t have the capacity to unify Taiwan by force before 2025.
However, they warned that Beijing might still try to launch a war, and said that Taiwan and its people should be prepared for the CCP’s different tactics.
Lee Cheng-hsiu, a senior assistant research fellow at Taiwan’s National Policy Foundation, told the Chinese language edition of The Epoch Times on Dec. 13 that there are multiple situations in which Beijing may decide to wage war on Taiwan.
“Once Taiwan announces it’s an independent country, the Chinese regime will use force against Taiwan at all cost.”
Another analyst Chie Chung, secretary-general and researcher at the Association of Strategic Foresight, said that with “the Chinese economy is shrinking because of the pandemic … once there’s social turmoil (perhaps the Chinese people standing up against the regime), the regime will launch the Taiwan War to transfer domestic blame for a poor economy on Taiwan and the cost of war.”
He added, “Another scenario that I’m concerned about is that both sides might launch a war if there’s a misfire.”
In recent years, the Chinese military has been almost daily sending warplanes into Taiwan’s “air defence identification zone” (ADIZ) and performing military exercises close to Taiwan in a campaign of intimidation and wearing down its enemies.
However, Su Tzu-yun, a senior analyst at the Taiwan-based Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told The Epoch Times, “[The Taiwanese government] used to talk about controlling the air, controlling the sea, and its anti-landing [capabilities]. Now, the new report has launched a new mode of combat—counter invasion—which is shooting long-range missiles to target China’s bases that fired on us.”
“This is the most striking part of the report,” he said of his confidence in Taiwan’s current defense capabilities.
All three analysts said they believe there may be a silver lining to any act of war by Beijing, as the Chinese regime would lose any chance to control Taiwan once it fails in its attack. Then, Taiwan would have a golden path to being recognized as an independent country on the international stage.
The Chinese regime claims the island as its own, despite Taiwan being a de facto independent country, with its own military, democratically-elected government, and constitution.
By Nicole Hao
