Stationing air defenses on a Japanese island just 68 miles from Taiwan highlights a shared security fate between the two democracies, an expert says.
A Japanese planned missile deployment will deter Beijing’s activities in the region and buy the United States–Japan alliance crucial time to block a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, analysts say.
Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi announced on Feb. 24 that Japan plans to station the surface-to-air missiles at Yonaguni by March 2031.
The statement marked the first time Tokyo has set a concrete deadline for stationing the missiles at Yonaguni since the plan was initially unveiled in 2022.
“It depends on the progress of preparing facilities, but we are planning for fiscal 2030,” Koizumi said in a press conference.
Yonaguni, Japan’s westernmost island, sits a mere 68 miles east of Taiwan, making the neighboring coastline visible on a clear day.
The move came as Beijing has grown increasingly hostile toward Japan following November remarks by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting Japan would be justified in activating its Self-Defense Force in the event of an attack on Taiwan, which triggered a series of Chinese economic coercive measures.
‘Gray Zone’ Deterrence
Arthur Wang Zhin-sheng, secretary general of the Asia-Pacific Elite Interchange Association in Taiwan, said the missiles—known as the Type 03 Chu-SAM medium-range system—can, to some extent, deter Chinese expansionist behavior in the waters surrounding Japan.
“They have a certain degree of deterrent effect against China’s gray zone operations, such as harassment by maritime militia or coast guard vessels at sea, as well as regular aircraft harassment in the air,” Wang told The Epoch Times.
Gray zone operations are coercive actions below the threshold of war.
Wang said the missiles primarily target low-to-medium-altitude aircraft and cruise missiles, equipped with surface-to-air and anti-ship capabilities for defensive purposes rather than offensive strikes.
“Their range is probably under 100 kilometers [62 miles] because they are medium-range missiles with a relatively shorter range, “ Wang said.
“So while they have striking capabilities, these are not the main objective of a general medium-range missile deployment pending future upgrades.”
Richard Chou Yu-ping, a member of the Evaluation Center Committee at Taiwan’s National Defense Industrial Development Foundation, agreed, saying the deployment’s contribution is likely confined to surveillance and monitoring rather than direct interception.
“It currently appears to add more sensors and radars capable of monitoring future Chinese operations to prevent Beijing from breaching the first island chain,” Chou told The Epoch Times.
The first island chain serves as a strategic buffer limiting China’s naval and air forces from freely projecting power into the Pacific Ocean, said analysts.
Wang said that Beijing will likely not cease its assertive territorial maneuvers toward Tokyo even after the deployment.
“China will not stop or reduce its harassment just because Japan deployed such missiles, but Beijing will have to give more consideration to the deterrence provided by the Type 03 systems during the transition from peacetime to wartime,” Wang said.
The concept of transitioning from peacetime to wartime refers to the rapid shift of administrative systems and military equipment from regular operations to active combat readiness.
Japan–Taiwan ‘Shared Security Fate’
Wang said the deployment is a direct warning to Beijing, reflecting Tokyo’s established stance that “a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency.”
“Although its actual combat effectiveness is limited, this action somewhat enhances deterrence against a Chinese military assault on Taiwan,” Wang said.
“And it serves as a declaration to Beijing and the international community that Japan will possess more comprehensive countermeasure capabilities in response to a Taiwan contingency moving forward.”
By Jarvis Lim
