When voters cast their ballots, what determines who gets their support is almost always a matter of the heart, not the mind.
Entrepreneur Juan Pablo Segura looked like the perfect Republican candidate to win the newly-created Virginia State Senate District 31 that includes much of Loudoun County, home of the parents’ rights movement that gained national attention.
But when the votes were counted in the 2023 race that was among the most expensive campaigns ever in Virginia, more than 52 percent of the ballots went to his Democrat opponent, in a loss that shocked more than a few Republicans who thought it was their year.
Democrats’ warnings of Republican threats to abortion access were the factor that produced the Virginia surprise that could be repeated nationwide in 2024, according to Democratic strategists.
But a Republican campaign pollster sees a huge shift among a key voter group concerning the millions of illegal immigrants that have crossed into the United States since 2021 under President Joe Biden’s open border policies.
That shift could counterbalance the abortion issue.
Led by Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Virginia Republicans had high hopes of gaining a state senate majority to match their control of the state house. Instead, not only did they fail to take over the senate, they also lost their majority in the Virginia House of Delegates.
One GOP political expert who was not surprised by the Virginia outcome was Mitchell Brown, political strategy director for Cygnal, a Washington-based polling and analytics firm. He sees a lesson in the Segura loss for Republicans in the 2024 campaign.
“The issue with it is we have to remember that people aren’t voting with their minds, it’s an emotive response to things, so when you’re asked what issue is top-of-the-mind, abortion doesn’t come up among the things we’re seeing nationally on sentiments,” Mr. Brown told The Epoch Times.
“But if you come up to the Mainline in Philadelphia or Northern Virginia’s suburbs or out in Michigan and scream about how someone is a MAGA extremist who wants to put women in prison for getting abortions, that issue is going to be very powerful for Democrats,” Mr. Brown said.
“I live in Northern Virginia in one of the swing districts, right on the edge of Fairfax County and into Loudoun County. Segura never said anything about abortion, but every Sunday when I was watching football, I kept hearing the refrain saying ‘Juan Pablo Segura is the MAGA extremist. He and his friends want to put women in jail for getting abortions,’” Mr. Brown said.
“Those ads were powerful, they got your attention and there is no way to differentiate it when every single Republican was getting hit like that, so it was tough,” he said.
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