The UK’s 100-Year Bet

When it comes to betting, it’s better to place your confidence in the ubiquitous “sure thing” than a long shot. In signing a 100-year pact with Ukraine the UK appears to be doing the opposite.

How does one agree to a century-long pact with a country whose independence can be measured in decades? From 1920 to 1990 Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, prior to that the country found itself under the successive heels of Poland, Lithuania, and Russia.

It’s like promising to drive your Segway to work while wearing your ‘Livestrong’ bracelet for a century. That’s fine, except that promise is rooted in contemporary, and ultimately temporary circumstances.

Century-long promises can’t be made to a fad.

Ukrainian governments have the same permanence as Gangnam Style dancing. Would you agree to a long-term contract with a toddler? No, but in terms of governmental and national maturation that is in fact what Ukraine is, a toddler.

Any kind of long-term national alliance makes sense only for partners who share common historical interests, borders, economies, and stability. These types of covenants are more typically initiated by nations who have established mutual reliance over an extended period, say one hundred years or so.

Is Ukrainian “democracy” stable?

Since 1990 Ukraine has had six presidents. In that same time the US has also had six presidents, four of which were two-termers (Clinton, Bush II, Obama and now Trump). Each US president serves a four-year term (some consecutively).

In Ukraine, the terms have not been quite as balanced. Ukrainian presidents are elected to five-year terms. Since 1990, the shortest presidential term was one hundred-four days (Oleksandr Turchynov). The longest, ten years one hundred-eighty-eight days (Leonid Kuchima).

Amongst the six presidents slated to serve a five-year term, four served something less than five years. The current president, the inestimable Zelensky, is in his sixth year as democracy’s last best hope. To be fair to his predecessors, his second term is occurring without the benefit of the electorate’s concurrence, as he canceled elections due the war with Russia.

For years, international watchdog agencies have been ringing alarm bells that Ukraine’s political and business elites operate more like organized crime than a democracy.

According to Transparency International, a German registered association founded in 1993 by former employees of the World Bank, Ukraine is the 105th least corrupt nation out of 180. In laymen’s terms, there are only seventy-five countries more corrupt than Ukraine and 104 less corrupt (including the US at 28).

Wikipedia says of Ukraine,

“Corruption is a significant issue in Ukrainian society[1][2] going back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.[3] After declaring independence from the Soviet Union, Ukraine faced a series of politicians from different sides of the political spectrum, as well as criminal bosses and oligarchs, who used the corruption of police, political parties, and industry to gain power.[4] Ukraine is still considered one of the more corrupt countries in Europe.”

Despite all this, the UK sees fit to sign a lengthy treaty suggesting they are betting Ukraine will be something that it heretofore has not been. I’m not sure Jimmy the Greek would agree.

The accord includes the usual EU suspects.

A close association with the UN. As if this flaccid and indecisive body which tilts strongly toward Russia and China would ever dedicate itself to some form of international equity or justice.

A sly semi-promise to consider Ukraine for NATO membership which seems patently absurd at this point.

The expected Environmental & Equity twaddle.

“EMPHASISING the importance of strengthening Ukraine’s social development sector and its ability to meet and reinforce its equalities and climate objectives in line with the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals,

PRIORITISING women, girls, persons with disabilities, and marginalised groups at the heart of all they do and recognising the potential for their citizens to move between their respective nations, forging more ties and countless partnership opportunities,”

And.

ARTICLE 8: Boosting positions as leaders in science, technology and innovation: The Parties shall address shared challenges and threats, seize opportunities, and drive sustainable inclusive growth for all.

ARTICLE 9: Harnessing socio-cultural ties: 1. The Parties shall collaborate across a range of areas including human rights, gender equality and social inclusion, social protection, care, reform, education, health, climate, sport, and bring their societies closer. 2. The Parties, realising that culture is an integral part of sustainable development of society, will deepen cooperation in the areas of culture, preservation of cultural heritage, and encourage cooperation between creative industries.”

The convention leaves an overwhelming sense that it is intended to place a bigger wedge between UK/Ukraine and the US, rather than Russia.

In the end, Starmer’s centennial treaty is a long shot bet against the US.

I hope his bookie is understanding.

Stephen Piccirillo  2025

Steve Piccirillo
Steve Piccirillohttps://www.amazon.com/Evil-Stalks-Emerald-City-Rodney/dp/B0CPFW3TV1/
Steve Piccirillo is a former journalist, policeman, business owner and twice-elected School Board Director. His novel, Evil Stalks the Emerald City, is available on Amazon.

Columns

Trans-wormal

No worm ever said "I am anthropomorphizing, I am a butterfly" to a toad or flock of geese and expected acknowledgement and support.

In Greenland’s Icy Capital, Past Troubles Haunt Hopes for the Future

As geopolitical realities and ongoing economic growth raise the stakes, U.S. interest in Greenland and the dream of independence may change things in a big way.

How a Chinese Government Statistician Was Forced to Report Fake Data

Chinese local govt employee produced a non-authorized report on bees and was visited by police and threatened with being sent to a mental hospital.

‘This One Time, at Groomer Camp’

All Camp Brave Trails programs focus on helping LGBTQ+ youth find what they need most to thrive: their people, their place, and their passion.

Why Recognizing a Palestinian State Now Undermines U.S. Interests 

A recent American Conservative article suggests President Trump recognize a Palestinian state, but this would undermine the interests of the United States.

News

Guatemalan Deportee Arrives in US After Judge Orders Trump Admin to Facilitate Return

“America’s asylum system was never intended to be used as a de facto amnesty program or a catch-all, get-out-of-deportation-free card,” McLaughlin said.

Trump-Musk Feud Escalates Over Spending Bill: 5 Things to Know

A public feud between Musk and Trump took a turn for the worse. Musk claimed president wouldn’t have won without him and president suggested Musk’s subsidies could be pulled.

Supreme Court Rules 9-0 Wisconsin Violated First Amendment by Denying Tax Exemption to Catholic Charity

Supreme Court ruled unanimously that WI violated the First Amendment by not granting Catholic charity an exemption from paying unemployment tax.

Appeals Court Rules San Diego’s Yoga Ban Is Unconstitutional

The city of San Diego’s ban on yoga classes in public parks and beaches was ruled unconstitutional by a federal appeals court.

Supreme Court Rejects Mexico’s Lawsuit Against Gun Companies

SCOTUS said gun companies should not face lawsuit in which Mexican govt was trying to hold them liable for cartel-related violence involving firearms from US.

FDA Not Recommending Newly Approved COVID-19 Vaccine: Official

FDA approved a new COVID-19 vaccine but is not recommending people receive it, the agency’s top vaccine officials said on June 4.

Self-Sufficiency Summits in Ohio Reflect Surging Interest in Homesteading

After an age of reliance on store-bought items, many Americans are returning to a self-sufficient lifestyle and growing and raising the food they consume.

Judge Requires Trump Admin to Provide Due Process for Deportees in El Salvador Prison

Boasberg ordered Trump admin to provide habeas relief for individuals it deported and are held in Salvadoran maximum security prison.
spot_img

Related Articles