When it comes to betting, it’s better to place your confidence in the ubiquitous “sure thing” than a long shot. In signing a 100-year pact with Ukraine the UK appears to be doing the opposite.
How does one agree to a century-long pact with a country whose independence can be measured in decades? From 1920 to 1990 Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, prior to that the country found itself under the successive heels of Poland, Lithuania, and Russia.
It’s like promising to drive your Segway to work while wearing your ‘Livestrong’ bracelet for a century. That’s fine, except that promise is rooted in contemporary, and ultimately temporary circumstances.
Century-long promises can’t be made to a fad.
Ukrainian governments have the same permanence as Gangnam Style dancing. Would you agree to a long-term contract with a toddler? No, but in terms of governmental and national maturation that is in fact what Ukraine is, a toddler.
Any kind of long-term national alliance makes sense only for partners who share common historical interests, borders, economies, and stability. These types of covenants are more typically initiated by nations who have established mutual reliance over an extended period, say one hundred years or so.
Is Ukrainian “democracy” stable?
Since 1990 Ukraine has had six presidents. In that same time the US has also had six presidents, four of which were two-termers (Clinton, Bush II, Obama and now Trump). Each US president serves a four-year term (some consecutively).
In Ukraine, the terms have not been quite as balanced. Ukrainian presidents are elected to five-year terms. Since 1990, the shortest presidential term was one hundred-four days (Oleksandr Turchynov). The longest, ten years one hundred-eighty-eight days (Leonid Kuchima).
Amongst the six presidents slated to serve a five-year term, four served something less than five years. The current president, the inestimable Zelensky, is in his sixth year as democracy’s last best hope. To be fair to his predecessors, his second term is occurring without the benefit of the electorate’s concurrence, as he canceled elections due the war with Russia.
For years, international watchdog agencies have been ringing alarm bells that Ukraine’s political and business elites operate more like organized crime than a democracy.
According to Transparency International, a German registered association founded in 1993 by former employees of the World Bank, Ukraine is the 105th least corrupt nation out of 180. In laymen’s terms, there are only seventy-five countries more corrupt than Ukraine and 104 less corrupt (including the US at 28).
Wikipedia says of Ukraine,
“Corruption is a significant issue in Ukrainian society[1][2] going back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.[3] After declaring independence from the Soviet Union, Ukraine faced a series of politicians from different sides of the political spectrum, as well as criminal bosses and oligarchs, who used the corruption of police, political parties, and industry to gain power.[4] Ukraine is still considered one of the more corrupt countries in Europe.”
Despite all this, the UK sees fit to sign a lengthy treaty suggesting they are betting Ukraine will be something that it heretofore has not been. I’m not sure Jimmy the Greek would agree.
The accord includes the usual EU suspects.
A close association with the UN. As if this flaccid and indecisive body which tilts strongly toward Russia and China would ever dedicate itself to some form of international equity or justice.
A sly semi-promise to consider Ukraine for NATO membership which seems patently absurd at this point.
The expected Environmental & Equity twaddle.
“EMPHASISING the importance of strengthening Ukraine’s social development sector and its ability to meet and reinforce its equalities and climate objectives in line with the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals,
PRIORITISING women, girls, persons with disabilities, and marginalised groups at the heart of all they do and recognising the potential for their citizens to move between their respective nations, forging more ties and countless partnership opportunities,”
And.
“ARTICLE 8: Boosting positions as leaders in science, technology and innovation: The Parties shall address shared challenges and threats, seize opportunities, and drive sustainable inclusive growth for all.
ARTICLE 9: Harnessing socio-cultural ties: 1. The Parties shall collaborate across a range of areas including human rights, gender equality and social inclusion, social protection, care, reform, education, health, climate, sport, and bring their societies closer. 2. The Parties, realising that culture is an integral part of sustainable development of society, will deepen cooperation in the areas of culture, preservation of cultural heritage, and encourage cooperation between creative industries.”
The convention leaves an overwhelming sense that it is intended to place a bigger wedge between UK/Ukraine and the US, rather than Russia.
In the end, Starmer’s centennial treaty is a long shot bet against the US.
I hope his bookie is understanding.
Stephen Piccirillo 2025
