The races could decide the future composition of the House of Representatives and are being slated as a referendum on Trump’s term so far.
On April 1, voters will head to the polls for three races in Florida and Wisconsin, which will have substantial implications for the future beyond the current contests.
In Florida, voters will cast ballots for members of the House in two deep-red district special elections as the House remains narrowly Republican.
Voters in Wisconsin, one of the most important swing states at the national level, are set to choose a new judge for the state Supreme Court, a contest that both sides believe could have national implications.
Taken together, analysts see the two contests—some of the first held since President Donald Trump’s sweeping victory in November—as key bellwethers of voter sentiment on the new administration.
Here’s what to watch for as results come in.
Democrats Hope for Florida Upset
The House contests in Florida have the potential to have the most immediate impact on national politics in a best-case scenario for Democrats, who are hoping for a long-shot victory in the two deeply Republican districts.
The seats in Florida’s First and Sixth Districts were left open after now-former Reps. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz, both Republicans, vacated their seats to pursue the roles of attorney general and national security adviser, respectively.
Though both won their reelection in 2024 by more than 30 points, the opposition is putting up a multimillion-dollar fight.
Trump has backed the two GOP contenders: Florida Chief Financial Officer and Fire Marshall Jimmy Patronis in Gaetz’s district, and state Sen. Randy Fine for Waltz’s district.
In Florida’s western panhandle, voters will decide between Patronis and Democrat Gay Valimont to replace Gaetz in the state’s First District. Florida’s Sixth District, situated on the state’s east coast, will see Fine facing off against Democrat Joshua Weil to replace Waltz.
Republicans maintain a substantial registration advantage in both districts, aside from the already-heavy GOP lean, but Democrats insist they have a shot.
Democrats have touted their fundraising hauls, which saw them outraise both GOP candidates, according to Federal Elections Commission reports filed on March 20 before a preelection deadline.
Valimont raised $6.4 million compared with Patronis’s $1.2 million, and Weil amassed $8.9 million compared to Fine’s roughly $560,000.
By Joseph Lord, Jacob Burg, T.J. Muscaro and Lawrence Wilson
