Though Democrats currently have a majority in the House, Republicans feel confident they will flip enough seats to regain control of the chamber when midterm election results are announced on Nov. 8.
Every one of the House’s 435 seats is up for grabs. At least 212 lean Republican while 192 favor Democrats, the Cook Political Report announced on Sept. 21. The organization rates 31 elections as toss-ups.
There are dozens of races that could result in new party representation. Newly drawn maps that now favor one party over another will have an impact on some districts. Some races feature battles between first-time candidates vying to replace longtime representatives who are retiring or seeking another office.
There are also districts where Democrats were elected during former President Donald Trump’s term and now face steep re-election challenges at a time when President Joe Biden’s approval rating is low and the economy is plagued with high inflation.
Based on one or more of the aforementioned factors, here are eight examples of House seats that could flip and determine which party has control.
Iowa CD3
Rep. Cindy Axne advanced to the general election without competition in Iowa’s June 7 Democratic primary, but her tenure in Congress could reach an end in her midterm election against Trump-endorsed Zach Nunn.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District race as “lean Republican” while Inside Elections calls it a toss-up.
Republicans believe they can flip Iowa’s only blue district, which is now rated R+2 by FiveThirtyEight after redistricting.
In 2018, Axne defeated two-term incumbent Republican David Young, 49 percent to 47.5 percent. She edged Young again in 2010, 48.9 percent to 47.6 percent.
The new 3rd Congressional District includes nine counties that tend to vote Republican and supported Trump in 2020.
